As NASCAR heads into its 15th points-paying race of the 2025 season, the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway is shaping up to be as unpredictable as ever—not just because of the competition on track, but because of the threat hanging in the skies above. Set in the Irish Hills of Brooklyn, Michigan, this single annual Cup date carries added weight for teams, and Saturday’s qualifying session will set the tone for what could be another weather-impacted weekend.
How Michigan Qualifying Works in 2025
Unlike other venues that might split drivers into groups or feature multiple rounds, Michigan keeps it simple this season. Each Cup Series driver will get one single-lap run, and the fastest time will secure the pole position for Sunday’s race. The qualifying order is determined by NASCAR’s metric formula, which takes into account recent performance metrics like finishing position, fastest laps, and team owner points. But once the order is set, it’s a clean slate—one chance to put it all together.
That approach eliminates some of the strategic complications teams might encounter with multi-round formats. There’s no tire management, no group shuffling, and no saving anything for a final run. It’s all in, right away.
2025 Cup Series Michigan Qualifying Order
Leading the field early in the session will be Noah Gragson (No. 4), followed closely by Cody Ware, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Justin Haley. These early runs often face the risk of cooler track conditions—but could also benefit if rain moves in later.
| S.No | Car No. | Driver Name |
| 1 | 4 | Noah Gragson |
| 2 | 51 | Cody Ware |
| 3 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 4 | 7 | Justin Haley |
| 5 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 6 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 7 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 8 | 88 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 9 | 35 | Riley Herbst |
| 10 | 10 | Ty Dillon |
| 11 | 21 | Josh Berry |
| 12 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 13 | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 14 | 60 | Ryan Preece |
| 15 | 41 | Cole Custer |
| 16 | 34 | Todd Gilliland |
| 17 | 71 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 19 | 99 | Daniel Suarez |
| 20 | 38 | Zane Smith |
| 21 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 22 | 19 | Chase Briscoe |
| 23 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 24 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 25 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 26 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 27 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 28 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 29 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 30 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 31 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 32 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 33 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 34 | 24 | William Byron |
| 35 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 36 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
On the back half, heavy hitters like William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney are set to go out late. That could be good news if the track gains grip, but disastrous if storms cut the session short.
Weather Threats Could Rewrite the Weekend
Friday and Saturday are both under threat of rain, which could drastically reshape the FireKeepers Casino 400 weekend. With rain in the forecast due to an incoming trough sweeping across the Great Lakes region, Cup teams face the real possibility of a delayed or even canceled qualifying session.
Friday Forecast:
High: 75°F / Low: 57°F
Widespread showers expected
Wet track could disrupt Truck and ARCA practice
Saturday Forecast:
High: 75°F / Low: 54°F
Isolated rain expected in morning
Cup qualifying session under threat
Sunday Forecast:
High: 80°F / Low: 54°F
Partly cloudy, calm winds
Favorable for race-day, barring late pop-up storms
If rain does cancel qualifying, NASCAR may revert to its metric formula to set the starting lineup. In that scenario, recent winners or consistent top performers—like William Byron, Kyle Larson, or Christopher Bell—could be gifted strong starting spots without turning a lap. On the flip side, drivers like Shane van Gisbergen or Riley Herbst could be pushed deep into the field, increasing the challenge of earning solid points.
A Look Back: 2024’s Chaotic Michigan Masterclass
If fans needed a reminder that weather matters in Michigan, they got it in 2024. The FireKeepers Casino 400 was postponed due to persistent Sunday rain and concluded with a dramatic Monday double-overtime finish. Tyler Reddick emerged victorious for 23XI Racing, snapping Ford’s nine-race win streak at the track.
That event saw 16 different leaders and 26 lead changes—a sign of how volatile Michigan races can become, especially with unexpected delays. Veterans like Brad Keselowski and playoff contenders like Kyle Busch had their afternoons ruined by weather-influenced crashes and pit strategy gone awry.
It also demonstrated how quickly fortune can change. A driver running 12th on Sunday could suddenly find themselves leading the pack Monday morning. For NASCAR, Michigan is high speed mixed with high stakes—and when weather joins the equation, chaos often follows.
News in Brief: NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying Set for Michigan
With just one Cup Series race at Michigan each season, there’s no second chance. Saturday’s qualifying session is every driver’s opportunity to grab clean air and track position heading into Sunday’s 400-mile battle. But with unpredictable weather looming over the Irish Hills, many teams are preparing for Plan A, B, and even C.
Whether qualifying goes off without a hitch or rain forces officials to pull out the backup plan, one thing is clear: nothing about Michigan is ever routine. Fans should keep one eye on the qualifying chart and another on the radar. And come Sunday, the race could be won or lost before the green flag even drops.
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