The NASCAR Cup Series enters a pivotal stretch where a single win can reshape the postseason picture. With only three races left in the regular season, pressure is mounting for drivers yet to secure a spot. Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona each present different challenges and opportunities, and for those hovering near the elimination line, these venues could make or break their championship hopes. Several contenders stand out in the playoff race, each with distinct strengths and weaknesses heading into the final push.
Key Highlights
Three races remain: Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona.
Only three playoff spots are unfilled heading into the weekend.
Simulations show a 70% chance of at least one new winner outside current playoff spots.
Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman lead among bubble drivers in win probability.
Daytona looms as the ultimate wildcard for drivers still chasing a berth.
Tyler Reddick’s Road Skill Makes Him a Threat
Tyler Reddick holds the most comfortable points cushion among those still seeking a victory, sitting 14th and 122 points above the cutline. His path to the playoffs looks promising, thanks in part to his proven road-course expertise. With a 4.8% simulated win probability at Watkins Glen, he stands as one of the top threats to challenge Shane van Gisbergen and the rest of the field this weekend.
Reddick’s average Driver Rating of 92.7 on road courses this season underscores his consistency. While Richmond is less favorable for him, back-to-back top 10s there suggest potential. Daytona remains unpredictable for Reddick, where his finishes swing between the top five and outside the top 24.
Bowman Building Momentum
Alex Bowman’s steady climb in performance makes him a strong contender for a late-season win. Holding the 15th position in points, 63 above the elimination line, Bowman has quietly pieced together seven finishes of 11th or better in his last eight starts. His 3.8% simulated win probability at Watkins Glen ranks among the better in the bubble group, bolstered by the eighth-best road-course rating in 2025.
Richmond offers a history of success for Bowman, including a past win, while Daytona’s drafting unpredictability is something he’d prefer to avoid relying upon. In 30% of simulations, Bowman secures enough points without a win, but the surer path remains taking the checkered flag.
Gibbs, Buescher, and Preece Fighting from Both Sides of the Line
Ty Gibbs, sitting 19th in points and 87 below the cutline, finds himself in a must-win scenario. With a 5.3% win chance at Watkins Glen, his road-course prowess gives him the best shot to force his way into the field. Gibbs’ recent form, including an In-Season Challenge victory at Indianapolis, adds weight to his chances.
Chris Buescher, currently 16th with a slim 23-point advantage, mirrors Gibbs’ strategy, leaning heavily on road-course strength. The defending winner at The Glen has a 4.2% simulated win probability there but lacks strong short-track and superspeedway stats this season. Ryan Preece, meanwhile, sits 17th, just 23 points out. His consistency has kept him in the mix, but his historical lack of dominance at the remaining tracks limits his upside.
Brad Keselowski’s Last Chance Surge
Brad Keselowski faces the steepest climb among notable bubble drivers. Sitting 21st in points, 121 markers behind the cutline, his only route to the playoffs is winning. His recent form suggests he could pull it off, with six finishes of 11th or better in the last seven races. Richmond, where he owns multiple victories, offers his most realistic shot, while Daytona’s volatility presents another possible path. Though his Watkins Glen odds sit at just 1.7%, Keselowski’s improved speed and consistency have given RFK Racing momentum. A win in the final stretch would mark one of the most remarkable turnarounds of the playoff era.
News in Brief: 2025 NASCAR Regular-Season Spots
With three races left in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture remains unsettled. Watkins Glen, Richmond, and Daytona will determine which three drivers claim the final postseason spots. Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman hold points advantages but still seek wins to remove uncertainty. Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece hover near the cutline, with road-course success key to their chances. Brad Keselowski must win to advance, relying on Richmond or Daytona. The drama builds as NASCAR’s playoff field nears completion.
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