A significant change is coming to NASCAR as the organization plans to retire its current playoffs system in favor of reinstating the 16-driver Chase format starting in 2026. Kevin Harvick, a past champion under the original Chase rules, has voiced his opinions on which drivers will benefit most, notably omitting reigning champion Kyle Larson from his predictions about future championship contenders. This shift in format has sparked widespread debate within the racing community, shining a spotlight on the Kyle Larson NASCAR championship prospects moving forward.
Harvick Names His Top Contenders for the New System
During a recent episode of his “Happy Hour” podcast, Kevin Harvick discussed which drivers he believes are best positioned to capitalize on the upcoming change to the Chase format. Drawing on his experience, Harvick emphasized that drivers with a history under the old system could hold an advantage. Harvick identified Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano as two of the most experienced racers who have already competed in this structure, and he also included last year’s champion, Ryan Blaney.
“The guys with experience. I still think it’s gonna be the Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano… I’d say Hamlin, Logano, I think [Ryan] Blaney, I mean, he had a little spell at the beginning of last year where he had some things go wrong, but he’s usually super consistent.”
— Kevin Harvick, via Happy Hour podcast
Harvick’s list of contenders extended to William Byron and 2020 champion Chase Elliott. Both drive for Hendrick Motorsports and are known for their reliability and capacity to consistently finish races in strong positions. Harvick highlighted that this kind of old-school consistency could be decisive in the revived Chase format.
“I think William Byron has ventured into that category. Chase Elliott, when you look at his stats, they’re finishers. They’re old school racers, and I think that style of racing is going to matter to be able to gather all those points.”
— Kevin Harvick, via Happy Hour podcast
Kyle Larson Left Off Harvick’s Picks Despite Winning Record
Conspicuously missing from Harvick’s lineup was Kyle Larson, the current champion and a two-time Cup winner. Despite Larson’s success and reputation as a points leader and one of the series’ most victorious drivers, Harvick did not include him among his five predicted benefactors of the new system. The omission may be linked to concerns over Larson’s occasional failures to finish races, a statistic that could become more costly under the Chase rules, where DNFs (Did Not Finish results) carry heavier repercussions for championship hopes.
Harvick Calls Format Change a ‘Great Compromise’ for NASCAR Stakeholders
Shortly after outlining his “ones to watch,” Harvick gave his perspective on the new championship structure itself. He considered the switch to be productive for all invested parties, including broadcasters and the fan base. By reverting to a format with a longer run-up and more meaningful points accumulation throughout the year, Harvick suggests the championship will remain authentic while still allowing for dramatic television highlights every few races.
“I think it’s a great compromise, because there are a lot of parties involved. You’ve got television, who wants those cuts and moments every few races, but sometimes those moments are fabricated.”
— Kevin Harvick, via Happy Hour podcast
Harvick further pointed out the renewed significance of balancing wins with consistent finishes, noting that collecting a DNF will carry substantial weight again. Nevertheless, his competitive drive remains unchanged, making it clear that for him, chasing victory is always the primary motivation, regardless of the playoff system.
“Winning still has to be important, but when you get a DNF, it needs to hurt…As a competitor, you race to the format. I don’t make the format. I don’t care what it is. I just want to win.”
— Kevin Harvick, via Happy Hour podcast
What the Updated Chase Means for Future NASCAR Seasons
NASCAR’s decision to restore the Chase format heralds a turning point for teams and fans, posing new opportunities and challenges. The change could favor drivers with a steady track record, but also raises questions about how high-risk, high-reward racers like Kyle Larson will adapt. With Harvick predicting success for “old school racers” such as William Byron, Chase Elliott, and seasoned veterans like Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, all eyes will now turn to who can best harness consistency and capitalize on the altered path to the championship. The 2026 title battle promises an intriguing test of endurance and skill as the series transitions into a new era.
