The highly anticipated 2026 Daytona 500 takes place this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway, launching a new season for the Cup Series and drawing intense attention to Daytona 500 NASCAR driver picks. As betting activity surges ahead of the event, several high-profile racers may not be the best choices for victory this year.
With odds circulating and excitement building, fans and analysts are reviewing performance histories and recent events to decide who stands the best chance—and which notable names could fall short. Here, we break down four drivers that bettors and enthusiasts may want to steer clear of for Sunday’s race.
An Unlikely Repeat After William Byron’s Dramatic 2025 Win
Daytona’s unpredictable final laps have shaped many race outcomes, with 2025 serving as a prime example. William Byron pulled off a stunning victory last year, surging from ninth place on the overtime lap due to a major crash that cleared the way for him. Despite his dramatic performance, history is not on Byron’s side for 2026—no driver has ever claimed victory at the Daytona 500 for three consecutive years in the event’s nearly 70-year run.
With such chaotic finishes being the norm and statistical odds stacked against a rare repeat, Byron is unlikely to see the same fortune this Sunday. The unpredictable nature of the Daytona 500 consistently creates new narratives that keep the racing world guessing, making Byron a risky pick for those seeking a sure thing.
Joey Logano’s Daytona Performance Offers More Doubts Than Certainty
Joey Logano, a familiar name at Daytona International Speedway, holds an impressive career record, including a 2015 Daytona 500 win and past pole positions. In his last six Daytona starts, Logano achieved two top-five results and amassed eight top-ten finishes during his career in “The Great American Race.”
However, recent seasons have seen a notable decline. Since 2020, Logano has notched just one top-ten finish at the event and has generally struggled to get off to a strong start in NASCAR’s Next Gen era with Team Penske. His proven ability at Daytona may offer hope for other races, like August’s Coke Zero Sugar 400, but the data suggests he is an unlikely contender for a top-five or podium spot this Sunday.
Denny Hamlin Faces Emotional and Physical Challenges
The narrative around Denny Hamlin carries an emotional weight into the 2026 Daytona 500. Coming off a dramatic defeat in the championship race at Phoenix and facing grief following his father’s recent passing, the 45-year-old Hamlin is also competing while managing a shoulder injury. The first Cup Series points race since his father’s death has created a poignant storyline, with fans at Daytona prepared to show their support if he achieves a fairytale win.
Despite the compelling backdrop, the accumulation of physical strain, a challenging offseason, and recent personal adversity points to a difficult day ahead. The likelihood that these factors negatively impact his performance is high, and projections place Hamlin outside the top ten for a fourth time since 2023, making him an uncertain bet for those managing their Daytona 500 NASCAR driver picks.
Kyle Busch’s Struggles With Victory Lane at Daytona
Kyle Busch, renowned as one of modern NASCAR’s finest drivers, has endured a race-winning drought since June 2023, going 96 Cup Series races without seeing victory lane. His statistics at Daytona International Speedway do little to inspire confidence. Since joining Richard Childress Racing, Busch has recorded just a single top-five finish with an average finish at Daytona of 21.1.
Moreover, Busch’s command during races has waned, with only 31 laps led since the 2023 Daytona 500. While his past achievements and reputation might make him an appealing pick for some, especially given the allure of a legendary comeback, the numbers suggest his realistic chances of topping the podium remain slim for Sunday’s event.
The Implications for Betting and the 2026 Season
As the Cup Series season opener, the 2026 Daytona 500 sets the tone for racing narratives and betting patterns throughout the year. With stalwarts like William Byron, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch each facing unique headwinds—ranging from historic trends to recent performance issues—the landscape is especially uncertain.
Bettors and fans analyzing Daytona 500 NASCAR driver picks should consider both the championship potential and the particular hazards each of these drivers faces this year. The race remains wide open, with emerging talent and unpredictable race dynamics likely to deliver new surprises and names that shape the season ahead at Daytona International Speedway.
