The anticipation is building as the 2026 NASCAR season launches with the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 15, where Kyle Busch, a seasoned driver, emerges as a notable value according to model predictions for Kyle Busch Daytona 500 odds. While popular choices like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and William Byron draw significant attention at the sportsbooks, the SportsLine computer model suggests that certain longshots, including Busch, could provide bettors with a lucrative edge.
Computer Model Highlights for Daytona 500 Underdogs
In the run-up to the Daytona 500, the betting landscape is heavily influenced by favorites, but the SportsLine simulation model has called out underdogs including Kyle Busch at 20-1, Christopher Bell at 22-1, and Chase Briscoe, also at 22-1, as prime candidates carrying greater value than their odds suggest. The analysis comes from Mike McClure’s respected model, which has a strong record of profitability and consistently spots opportunities in high-odds scenarios.
The model, guided by McClure—a top Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) player with career winnings surpassing $2 million—runs through 10,000 simulations for every NASCAR race. This advanced approach has led to calling 29 winners since 2021, including 11 successful tips in 2025. Consistent bettors relying on McClure’s insights have seen substantial returns.
Focusing exclusively on the Daytona 500, McClure and the SportsLine model are releasing their most promising betting picks, emphasizing the potential in mid-range and longshot contenders over traditional favorites for the upcoming race at the iconic Florida track.
Longshot Picks with Strong Statistical Support
According to the simulation data, three drivers—Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe—are showing greater upside at their current odds compared to their higher-profile rivals. This is particularly noteworthy for bettors seeking value away from the shortest odds available for Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, or William Byron.
- Kyle Busch (+2000)
Kyle Busch stands as one of the most experienced competitors at Daytona International Speedway, set to make his 42nd appearance at the venue—more than any other active competitor and one of just two with over 35 starts at the track. Though he is yet to win the Daytona 500, his history includes five runner-up finishes there and nine top-five results in 41 Daytona races. Notably, Busch led the Cup Series with 63 career victories, including one at Daytona.
The SportsLine model marks him as one of the standout betting values at 20-1 odds to finally clinch a victory in the 2026 Daytona 500, especially as other major sportsbooks have decreased his odds to 18-1 or lower. Caesars Sportsbook is currently offering one of the most favorable payouts for those willing to back Busch at this price point.
- Christopher Bell (+2200)
Christopher Bell has had successive strong performances in prior Daytona 500s, with consecutive third-place finishes and a competitive showing last year that ended in a late-race crash. Over the last three Daytona 500s, he’s led 42 laps, and last season he notched four Cup Series wins, tying him for the third-most in NASCAR.
Given this ongoing momentum and his frontline competitiveness at the season opener, Bell stands out as a promising pick at 22-1 odds, particularly since other operators offer lower payouts. The model highlights him as one of the best values to potentially claim his inaugural Daytona 500 win, with his odds at DraftKings standing above other sportsbooks’ prices.
- Chase Briscoe (+2200)
Chase Briscoe has built a strong case as an emerging contender at Daytona, with two top-five finishes in five career Daytona 500 starts. Every time Briscoe’s Daytona 500 entry was not cut short by an accident, he ended the race in the top 20. Last season, he got off to a strong start with a fourth-place finish at Daytona, which propelled him to a career-best year capped by three wins and a third-place finish in the final Cup Series standings. His 15 top-five finishes last season tied for the highest in NASCAR.
The continued upward trajectory in Briscoe’s performance and his ability to finish near the front at season openers have made him an attractive choice at 22-1 for bettors looking to capitalize on a breakout. The model’s tendencies suggest Briscoe’s improvement and consistency represent outsized value at these odds.
The Potential Impact for Bettors and the 2026 NASCAR Season
The guidance from McClure’s model doesn’t just outline which longshots have favorable odds, but also signals a possible shift in betting strategies among fans and new users of betting platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars Sportsbook. By favoring veteran drivers and recent up-and-comers with strong statistical backing, the SportsLine model encourages a data-driven approach for the Daytona 500, helping bettors identify overlooked opportunities—especially where odds for favorites are less rewarding.
The excitement surrounding Kyle Busch Daytona 500 odds, as well as the prospects for Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, sets the stage for a dynamic start to the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series. McClure’s analytical approach and betting recommendations continue to influence NASCAR wagering trends, as the industry’s marquee event returns to Daytona International Speedway.
