The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas, on Sunday, March 1, with Trackhouse Racing race favorites leading the betting odds ahead of the DuraMax Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne. As the first road-course event of the 2026 season, all eyes are on Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch, both from Trackhouse Racing, who are expected to be top contenders in the high-stakes competition.
Trackhouse Racing Drivers Tipped for Victory at COTA
Shane van Gisbergen, representing Trackhouse Racing, leads the odds boards at DraftKings Sportsbooks as the most likely candidate to secure a win at COTA, offered at +120. Van Gisbergen, a native of New Zealand, brings an impressive streak into the race—he has recorded five consecutive road-course wins, a feat achieved only once before by Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon. This dominant run includes victories at Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte Roval, making van Gisbergen the winningest rookie in a single NASCAR Cup Series season.
Despite his dominance, COTA has eluded van Gisbergen’s grasp. In last year’s race, while driving the No. 88 car, he led for 23 laps and achieved a top-five finish in both stages, but ultimately crossed the line in sixth place. His consistent strength on road courses, however, gives the odds makers confidence in his chances this weekend as pressure builds for him to finally claim the elusive Austin win.
Connor Zilisch Presents a Strong Case for Upset
Connor Zilisch, also a Trackhouse Racing driver, holds the next-best odds at +350, despite entering only his rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series. Zilisch is widely respected in the road racing scene, and his recent record supports the bookmakers’ optimism—last year, he amassed five wins and five poles on road courses in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. He also made a statement by triumphing at Watkins Glen during his debut in that same series in 2024.
Yet, Zilisch’s experience in Cup Series road races is limited. He made his maiden start at COTA in 2025, finishing 37th. Nevertheless, his outstanding road-course background signals that he could outperform his limited Cup credentials and potentially join van Gisbergen in victory lane this Sunday.
NASCAR Cup Series Regulars Face Steep Odds
Several of the sport’s established names have been relegated to the ranks of underdogs by the odds makers for this event. Ryan Blaney enters with a substantial +4500 line to secure a victory at COTA, while Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are each posted at +6000. Recent performances reveal the reasoning behind these long odds—Blaney, part of Team Penske, has only one road-course win to his name, dating back to 2018, and he has notched just a single top-10 finish in the last six such outings.
Logano, his teammate, finds himself in a similar situation, having last won a road course in 2015 and posting one top-10 result over the last six road-course events. As for Hamlin, although he managed a fourth-place run on the Chicago street circuit a season ago, he has finished 20th or worse in four of his last five road-course appearances. This downturn has kept him and his No. 11 car out of the favored ranks for Sunday’s showdown in Austin.
What to Expect as the Green Flag Drops in Austin
With Trackhouse Racing race favorites leading the pre-race buzz, the 2026 DuraMax Texas Grand Prix is poised to highlight rising stars and challenge the established hierarchy within the NASCAR Cup Series. The pressure sits squarely on Shane van Gisbergen to extend his record-setting streak and finally secure a win at COTA, while Connor Zilisch represents a promising wild card capable of upsetting the established order despite his rookie status. For usual contenders like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin, a strong run could help shift narrative away from recent road-course struggles, but the odds are clearly stacked against them as the series tackles Austin’s famed circuit.
