The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series kicks off its first road course event with the DuraMAX Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas, bringing a dramatic shakeup to betting odds. Shane Van Gisbergen enters as a heavy favorite after dominating last year’s road courses, but the best value for Kyle Larson NASCAR COTA picks appears to be among surprising longshots evaluated by the SportsLine predictive model.
How the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix Driver Field Shapes Up
This Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET, NASCAR’s premier drivers tackle the winding layout of COTA, a stark contrast to traditional speedways. Shane Van Gisbergen, after clinching five wins in six road or street course appearances last season, is the +115 frontrunner heading into the race. While he’s widely expected to perform strongly again, his presence lengthens the odds for many other top competitors, shifting the search for big returns to seasoned names sitting further down the odds list.
The SportsLine computer model, built by DFS veteran Mike McClure, simulated every lap 10,000 times and highlights several unexpected value plays. The model’s approach, proven by correctly selecting 29 winners since 2021 and identifying 11 race victors in 2025, has become a trusted guide for NASCAR wagering enthusiasts. According to the latest projections, the most promising longshots for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix include Kyle Larson at 22-1, Chase Elliott also at 22-1, and Kyle Busch at 35-1.
Top Value Picks for COTA: Model-Favored Longshots
Below are the model’s three standout picks for those seeking higher reward bets this weekend:
- Kyle Larson (+2200)
- Chase Elliott (+2200)
- Kyle Busch (+3500)
Kyle Larson: Former Champion at Long Odds
Kyle Larson, the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, enters COTA as an intriguing value at 22-1 odds. He’s maintained top form, finishing seventh or better in the final Chase for the Cup standings for six seasons. Larson’s 2024 campaign featured six victories—two of which came on road courses—demonstrating his capability on circuits like COTA.
However, the odds on Larson have drifted following a challenging set of road course performances last year, with four finishes outside the top 30. Notably, Larson was the runner-up during his COTA debut in 2021, but his recent showings at the track have underwhelmed, contributing to these generous odds. The SportsLine model, however, points to his career consistency and past successes as signals of potential under-appreciated value for bettors in this week’s event.
Chase Elliott: Consistent Top Finisher at COTA
Chase Elliott, who currently sits third in the Cup Series standings, is another longshot well-positioned according to the model. Elliot, the 2020 champion, is recognized for his consistent high-level performance, ending in the top 10 overall standings in nine of the past ten years (with his only exception coming due to injury in 2023). Last year, he notched two wins and finished in the top 10 at the majority of road and street course events.
Elliott’s connection to COTA is strong, with a debut victory in 2021 and a fourth-place finish at last year’s spring race. His track record includes three top-five results across four COTA starts, leading the model to project strong value at his current 22-1 odds this Sunday.
Kyle Busch: Solid Finishes Hint at Breakout
Kyle Busch brings the most career Cup Series victories of any active driver, although he’s yet to secure a win at COTA. Despite this, Busch boasts an impressive average finish at the Austin circuit, with four top-10 results in five starts, including a runner-up performance in the 2023 spring race. Last year, he finished fifth and maintains a 5.3 average finish over his last three COTA races—bettered by only two drivers in the field.
The SportsLine model considers his recent consistency a strong indicator that Busch can be a factor at COTA, and his odds at 35-1 represent substantial value compared to other sportsbooks offering shorter prices. He’s viewed as a legitimate threat to contend in the closing laps this weekend.
Expert Insights and Model Credibility
DFS professional Mike McClure’s prediction model, which powers the SportsLine picks, runs 10,000 simulations of each race to establish probable outcomes, a process that has identified dozens of winners over recent seasons. SportsLine is sharing its most promising bets for the DuraMAX Grand Prix exclusively on its platform.
What These Picks Mean for NASCAR Fans and Bettors
As the NASCAR Cup Series transitions to COTA’s challenging curves, drivers like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch represent intriguing choices for fans and bettors who seek longshot value away from the heavy favorite, Shane Van Gisbergen. The model’s track record offers confidence for those taking a chance on drivers with proven road course performance but higher odds. For full projections and updated leaderboard predictions, enthusiasts can turn to SportsLine’s official channels for in-depth guidance leading up to the race.
