Kyle Larson chasing Denny Hamlin’s NASCAR win record faces daunting odds, as the Cup Series veteran continues his streak of victories into the 2025 season, making the pursuit seem nearly out of reach. NASCAR legend Kyle Petty has expressed strong doubts that any current driver, including Larson, will be able to match or surpass Hamlin’s rapidly growing tally of wins.
Hamlin Defies Age to Secure Another Major Victory
Despite being frequently counted out at the end of the 2024 Cup Series season, Denny Hamlin has proved critics wrong by maintaining top form in his No. 11 Toyota Camry XSE. Entering the 2025 season, Hamlin silenced doubters by capturing his 57th career victory at Michigan, marking his third win of the year. This latest triumph places him 11th on NASCAR’s all-time wins list. During a press briefing, Hamlin acknowledged that rising stars like Joey Logano or Kyle Larson might eventually catch up to his career total, noting that younger drivers have time on their side.
Kyle Petty Calls Hamlin’s Record a Tall Order for Rivals
While Hamlin remains modest about his achievements, many in the sport, including Kyle Petty, believe he is underselling just how significant his run has been. There is a growing view that Hamlin could easily surpass 60 career wins before retiring, a feat that would firmly entrench him within the sport’s top 10 winners. For comparison, some argue that amassing 60 victories in today’s competitive NASCAR era is comparable in magnitude to Richard Petty’s legendary 200 career wins.
Achieving such numbers requires extraordinary consistency over time, a point stressed by Kyle Petty.
“Joey Logano is 35. He has 37 wins. He has to win the same amount of races in the next nine years he won in the previous nine years. That’s 18 years. 18 years of producing at the highest level. That’s almost impossible.”
—Kyle Petty, NASCAR Analyst and Former Driver
Larson’s Challenge Hampered by Modern Parity
Kyle Larson, with 32 Cup Series victories so far, is viewed as a possible contender to approach Hamlin’s mark. However, the increasingly level playing field among manufacturers makes a sustained run of wins much harder. Based on current trends, experts predict that it may take decades before another driver even approaches the 60-win milestone in the Cup Series.
Hamlin Approaching Historic Company in NASCAR
As Hamlin continues his pursuit, his eyes are set on reaching the mid-60s in total victories—a number that would assure his place among NASCAR’s greatest. Many once debated whether only a championship could secure Hamlin’s legacy, but his impressive win record is now widely recognized as historic in itself. Kyle Petty summed up Hamlin’s achievements with high praise:
“Denny Hamlin is one of the greatest drivers to ever sit in a Cup car. I don’t care whether he wins a championship. I don’t care what he does for the rest of his career. He’s going to be a Hall of Famer. He’s going to go down in history. And he may be, I say he is the last guy to 60.”
—Kyle Petty, NASCAR Analyst and Former Driver
As the season continues, Denny Hamlin’s performances are reshaping how NASCAR history is written. With each victory, the bar for future drivers such as Joey Logano and Kyle Larson rises ever higher, reinforcing just how rare such sustained excellence has become in today’s highly competitive field. All eyes remain on Hamlin as his pursuit of the upper echelons of NASCAR’s win list draws even closer.
