Denny Hamlin reaches 60 NASCAR Cup wins milestone as he secured an important victory at Michigan International Speedway, drawing closer to a rare number not seen often in modern racing. Experts like Dale Earnhardt Jr. argue that only Joey Logano and Kyle Larson hold realistic chances to reach Hamlin’s mark, but not without facing significant conditions and challenges.
Hamlin’s Elite Company After Michigan Triumph
On Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing celebrated his first win after his 700th start, marking his 57th career Cup triumph. This accomplishment further cements Hamlin’s place among the winningest racers in JGR history and puts him in pursuit of the milestone 60 NASCAR Cup victories, a feat only a select few drivers have ever neared. His longstanding relationship with Joe Gibbs Racing has played a critical role in building such a winning resume.
Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr., known for his analytical approach as both a broadcast commentator and co-owner of JR Motorsports, discussed which current drivers could threaten Hamlin’s eventual legacy. In his view, Joey Logano, the Penske star and three-time champion, along with 2021 Cup Series champion Kyle Larson, are the only ones in today’s garage with even an outside chance.
The Hurdles Facing Logano and Larson
Joey Logano, now 35 years old with 37 career Cup wins, and Kyle Larson, with a 2021 title under his belt and fewer than 40 wins, both face uphill battles if they hope to reach Hamlin’s 60-win record. According to Dale Earnhardt Jr., their best shot hinges on maintaining their places with powerhouse organizations—Logano at Team Penske and Larson at Hendrick Motorsports (HMS). Moving away from such championship-caliber teams, or losing their top driver status within them, could end their pursuit prematurely.
Logano is 35 years old and has 37 wins. Logano, in my opinion, is the only one that could probably get there. Larson could do it. The only thing is, is Larson and Joey have to stay in the Championship-winning cars to get to that number. That’s the problem.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr., via Dale Jr. Download
Dale Earnhardt Jr. also notes that Hamlin’s ongoing continuity with Joe Gibbs Racing has given him an edge over Logano and Larson, both of whom started their Cup careers elsewhere. Logano spent his early seasons at JGR without major success before flourishing at Penske, while Larson’s seven years with Chip Ganassi Racing preceded his rise after joining Rick Hendrick’s elite operation.
Both Logano and Larson, now in their thirties, must contend not just with the ticking clock but with emerging younger drivers eager to make their mark. Maintaining a front-running position and racing in championship-grade equipment is essential for at least another five to ten years if they hope to capture 60 career wins.
If something happens — there’s new drivers coming in, always the next best thing and the greatest guy — as long as you don’t become the B or the C driver at the great teams, as long as Joey and Larson are in Championship cars, which that sounds crazy to think they’ll never be but you just never know what might happen in five, 10 years.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr.
The path is especially daunting for Logano, who started young but now faces the physical and mental toll of a sport that rarely sees drivers remain at their peak beyond their late thirties. Larson’s own future in NASCAR also raises questions, with uncertainty about how long he plans to compete at the top, considering both early and late retirement scenarios.
Larson might not want to race that long, you just don’t know. He might race till he’s 60, who knows? He might win 80 races.
—Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Not All Experts Are Convinced
While Dale Earnhardt Jr. sees a plausible—if difficult—road for Logano and Larson to reach Hamlin’s milestone, not everyone in the racing community shares his optimism. Former Cup Series driver and commentator Kyle Petty casts doubt on the likelihood of another driver entering the 60-win club in today’s ultra-competitive landscape. Petty acknowledges the credentials of both Joey Logano and Kyle Larson but points to the rise of younger contenders and the uncertainties of time as obstacles too great to overcome.
Denny Hamlin’s going to get to 60 Cup wins. Don’t think we’re going to see another driver do it. I know everyone wants to talk Joey Logano. I know everybody wants to Kyle Larson, and there may be somebody that comes along years from now that gets close.
—Kyle Petty
Petty’s conclusion, shaped by years of experience racing against drivers like Denny Hamlin and observing new waves of talent entering the sport, underlines the remarkable consistency Hamlin has shown over two decades. The obstacles facing Logano and Larson go beyond just tallying wins—they reflect broader questions about team dynamics, career longevity, and how generational change alters NASCAR’s landscape.
Implications for NASCAR’s Competitive Future
The debate over whether Joey Logano or Kyle Larson can match Denny Hamlin’s 60 NASCAR Cup wins milestone highlights the unpredictability and relentless challenge of the Cup Series. While Hamlin’s career showcases what steadfast partnerships and performance can achieve, the journeys of Logano and Larson demonstrate how critical timing, team selection, and adaptability are for drivers chasing greatness. The next decade will reveal whether these contenders—already recognized as some of the most dynamic names in the sport—can truly rise to Hamlin’s level or if his record will remain an outlier among active NASCAR racers.
