As excitement builds for the new season, motorsports fans and analysts are buzzing with 2026 NASCAR Cup Series predictions. With the Daytona 500 on the horizon, top experts from FOX Sports—Bob Pockrass, Kevin Harvick, and Mamba Smith—have weighed in with their takes on which drivers and teams are set to stand out in what promises to be another unpredictable year.
Teams Facing the Most Pressure in 2026
High stakes surround several major organizations as they aim to prove themselves this season. According to Bob Pockrass, Richard Childress Racing (RCR) enters 2026 at a crossroads following a disappointing previous year. Both Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon placed outside the top 12 in last season’s standings, heightening scrutiny around the team’s leadership and its future. Pockrass sees this as a pivotal year for RCR and its lineup, especially with Kyle Busch’s free agency and young drivers eager to secure their roles.
“You talk about Kyle Busch being a free agent and can you get the track right there with a new crew chief and get him feeling like this can be a place where he wants to keep racing at,”
Bob Pockrass, Motorsports Expert.
“Where is Austin Dillon in his career? He obviously wants to run better as well. You’ve got a couple of young guys there who want to go Cup racing. Where are they looking for their futures? To me, RCR, they’ve gone through another round of competition changes, which seems like they’ve had a lot over the last two or three years. To me, they’re probably under the most pressure.”
Kevin Harvick, assessing organizational pressure elsewhere, casts a spotlight on 23XI. He points at Tyler Reddick’s need for a breakthrough as vital to 23XI’s championship hopes. Reddick, after notching a three-win season in 2024, failed to reach victory lane in 2025 but still managed seven top-five finishes. Bubba Wallace’s prior win and the high expectations from figures like Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin amplify the pressure for the team to step up this year.
“We gave them a mulligan last year,”
Kevin Harvick, NASCAR Analyst and Former Champion. “The bottom line is, Bubba [Wallace] got to victory lane, and we saw improvement from that car last year. Tyler Reddick has to win. I think he’s expected and went there to win races and been there long enough to win races. I think the scrutiny of that organization if they don’t, there’s no gimme this year.
“Bubba’s been there long enough now that it’s time to start creeping into that multiple wins [per season]. Riley will hopefully run better after his first year in Cup. But the big Tyler Reddick scenario to me is you’re expecting multiple race wins out of that car and that company and, in my opinion, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin expect them to go out and contend for a championship.”
Mamba Smith divides his focus between two operations: RFK Racing and the 22 Group. Neither squad claimed a win last season, with all RFK drivers failing to crack the top 15. According to Smith, both outfits are highly motivated to return to form, particularly as debates swirl online regarding their championship legacies.
“RFK needs to show they can be a top team again,”
Mamba Smith, Motorsport Commentator. “Obviously, what we just saw with Ryan Preece, that was great. He’s their top guy. He’s consistently their fastest guy. If I would say who is the most motivated, the 22 Group is the most motivated because of maybe how much people on social media talk about their championships.
“Watch the 22 Group show you what they can do in a different format. Watch them come out and be a top team as far as average, because it’s different.”
Drivers Tipped for a Breakout Year
Each analyst has a unique take on who is poised to seize the spotlight in 2026. Bob Pockrass’s pick is Chris Buescher, noting strong support from Buescher’s peers and optimism for an upswing at RFK Racing. After a downturn following a 2023 surge to seventh place, Buescher nonetheless managed five top-five finishes in 2025. Pockrass believes that a revitalized RFK could propel Buescher back into playoff contention.
“When we talk to other drivers about, ‘Who do you think is gonna make the chase this year who didn’t make it last year?,’ a third of them didn’t even think twice before they said Chris Buescher. If RFK is stronger as a group, he’s going to be really strong,”
Bob Pockrass, Motorsports Expert.
Kevin Harvick singles out Ty Gibbs, highlighting the young driver’s consistent speed and steady progress within Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs has finished among the top 20 in all three seasons at the Cup level, with five top-five finishes last year to his credit.
“Just because he’s been so fast. He’s got the speed in the race car to keep himself in contention, can race well, and it’s just about getting over that hump to get to victory lane,”
Kevin Harvick, NASCAR Analyst.
“I think they have the capability, the stability within the team now that they think they can have a breakout year.”
Mamba Smith nominates former Cup champion Chase Elliott, seeing renewed momentum after the team addressed performance struggles with their car. Elliott finished eighth in 2025, taking two victories but falling short of his championship-winning pace from earlier in his career.
“I’m just thinking that they started figuring it out with the car,”
Mamba Smith, Motorsport Commentator.
“That was just the biggest thing. He wasn’t very comfortable driving this car. Now, they figured it out. They went through all their gremlins. And their system is more to their liking. They probably feel like, ‘It’s back in our wheelhouse.”
Predictions for Most Wins in 2026
Turning from breakthrough stars to powerhouse performers, speculation runs high on who will capture the most victories. For Bob Pockrass, Kyle Larson stands out. The No. 5 driver secured his second Cup Series win last year, and with no apparent disruptions, Pockrass expects another dominant stretch.
“I don’t see any reason why they’re going to get any worse,”
Bob Pockrass, Motorsports Expert.
Kevin Harvick, however, emphasizes Denny Hamlin’s drive and personal motivations after a tough 2025, which saw Hamlin endure family trials alongside professional setbacks. Instead of Larson, Harvick sees Hamlin’s resilience and hunger fueling a season with multiple wins.
“I could definitely make the argument for Larson, but there’s still a lot of motivation for Denny Hamlin,”
Kevin Harvick, NASCAR Analyst.
“I just know he’s talked about his shoulder being hurt, being through so many things with his family, losing the championship and his dad’s passing and everything. I still believe there’s some fire in there to motivate him and as a driver, every year you’re looking for something to motivate you when you’ve done it that long. I hope that plays out, because I think he deserves it. I think sentiment for Denny Hamlin this year is going to be different. It started to shift last year. I believe that fan sentiment is going to be pretty positive this year as he rolls into the race track.”
Christopher Bell is Mamba Smith’s pick, largely due to Bell’s unwavering commitment and strong all-around capabilities. Although Smith considered Bell’s teammate Chase Briscoe, Bell’s speed and determination in the latter part of 2025 have shaped expectations for multiple wins in the new season.
“I almost went with his other teammate, Chase Briscoe, but Christopher Bell is highly, highly motivated to win a championship,”
Mamba Smith, Motorsport Commentator.
“That group is so fast. There’s really not any holes in his game. So, I think there’s a very good chance he ends the year with the most wins.”
Expert Picks for the 2026 Cup Series Champion
The big question remains: who will lift the trophy as Cup Series champion? Bob Pockrass’s selection is Ryan Blaney, who has maintained a high level of performance since his 2023 title, finishing sixth last year and runner-up the year before. Pockrass, although not providing an extensive rationale, believes Blaney’s consistency places him among the frontrunners.
Kevin Harvick backs William Byron, emphasizing the maturity gained and the steady relationship between Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle. After three top-five finishes without clinching the ultimate prize, Harvick senses the team’s persistence will finally pay off.
“It’s just that maturity and the things that go with a team. I think he and Rudy have a great relationship,”
Kevin Harvick, NASCAR Analyst.
“They have worked through a lot of hard moments together, and that’s what it takes to be the champ.”
Mamba Smith goes for Christopher Bell, predicting that his high motivation will result not only in the most race wins but also in his first Cup championship. Bell’s record—four straight top-five points finishes—fuel Smith’s belief that the timing is right for Bell to claim the ultimate victory.
“Last year, I went with William Byron, and I still feel like the fire is there. But this year, I’m going with Christopher Bell. There’s something about it with him, and I think it’s his time,”
Mamba Smith, Motorsport Commentator.
The Road Ahead: Stories to Watch in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series
With varied predictions and storylines set for 2026, this NASCAR Cup Series season offers intrigue at every turn. From teams like Richard Childress Racing and 23XI seeking redemption, to drivers such as Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Elliott chasing breakthrough years, the stakes are high across the field. The race for the most wins is seeded with personal motivation, especially for stars like Larson, Hamlin, and Bell, while the question of who will emerge as champion—whether it be Blaney, Byron, or Bell—remains wide open.
For fans, analysts, and the many entities invested in the sport—including FOX Sports, team owners like Michael Jordan, and organizations such as RFK Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing—the upcoming races promise excitement and drama. As the green flag flies at Daytona, every lap will sharpen the focus on which names will define the legacy of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, making these expert predictions more compelling than ever.
