Kyle Larson, last season’s champion and top contender for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, has lost his status as the primary favorite after just one race in the new season. NASCAR’s shift to a revised postseason format and unexpected changes in odds have quickly altered the landscape for the Kyle Larson NASCAR championship favorite discussion.
New Playoff Structure Changes the Game
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is notable for being the debut year of a postseason similar to the original Chase format, last used from 2004 to 2013. This marks a major shift away from the much-debated “win and in” knockout system that determined champions from 2014 to 2025. That previous format ignited controversy, most recently when Larson secured his championship over Denny Hamlin at Phoenix Raceway for Hendrick Motorsports. Despite this, it is important to highlight that Larson would have claimed the 2025 championship even under this year’s adjusted rules, though the strategies across the season may have been different for many drivers if these rules were already in effect.
Surprising Shakeup in Championship Odds
Only one race into the season, there’s a significant change atop the championship odds. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing as the new favorite at +370. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson is now right behind him at +400. This surprising shift comes despite Hamlin placing 31st in the Daytona 500 and Larson finishing in 16th. Notably, Larson sits in a tie for 14th in overall standings while Hamlin is in 33rd.
The rules under the new playoff structure have brought extra attention to points accumulation, making the jump in odds after one superspeedway event at Daytona difficult to interpret. Larson is currently three points above the crucial playoff cutoff line, with Noah Gragson in 16th and Michael McDowell in 17th. By comparison, Hamlin finds himself 19 points short of the cutoff at this stage.
Early Results on Superspeedways Leave the Door Open
This weekend’s race at EchoPark Speedway, formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway, is also being contested on a superspeedway. With only three more superspeedway tracks left among the next 24 regular season races, the true hierarchy among championship contenders is likely to become clearer in the races that follow.
Tyler Reddick, who took victory in the Daytona 500 and leads the points standings, is eighth on the list of championship favorites at +1400. The evolving dynamics illustrate just how early results and format changes can influence perceptions and odds in the Kyle Larson NASCAR championship favorite conversation.
What Lies Ahead for Contenders
With only a small portion of the season completed, NASCAR fans and analysts are watching for how the new format and evolving point scenarios will impact leading drivers such as Larson, Hamlin, and Reddick. Races at non-superspeedway tracks in the weeks ahead, as well as major broadcast events like the upcoming Autotrader 400 at EchoPark Speedway, promise further twists in the battle for the title. As the season progresses, those adapting best to the new Chase system may change the narrative yet again, keeping the championship race wide open for Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and all contenders in the NASCAR Cup Series.
