The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series has been a rollercoaster, and with just five regular-season races remaining, the playoff picture has boiled down to coin-flip intensity—especially for the bubble teams and perennial contenders whose postseason dreams may depend on the final lap at Daytona. The Dover race not only shuffled the deck at the top (with Chase Elliott vaulting to the points lead) but intensified the drama around the all-important 16th-place cutoff, currently held by Bubba Wallace by the slimmest of margins. Let’s break down the battles, spotlight the contenders, and forecast who’s most at risk—and who could ride a late surge into the playoffs.
Who’s In? The Top of the Table After Dover
Chase Elliott: The Quiet Climb to No. 1
Despite having just a single win this season, Chase Elliott now leads the Cup standings with 702 points and 12 top-10 finishes. Elliott’s summer has been defined by clinical consistency—regularly gathering top-fives, maximizing stage points, and avoiding DNFs even on days when victory was out of reach. At Dover, Elliott finished sixth despite leading a race-high 238 laps. His advantage shows that points racing still matters in NASCAR’s modern playoff era.
Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Bell, and the Multi-Win Pack
Denny Hamlin sits second (663 points) but leads all drivers with four wins, cementing his playoff status and placing him in prime position for a deep postseason run.
Kyle Larson follows with three wins and a tour-best 13 top-10s (664 points), keeping him firmly in the title hunt.
Christopher Bell (3 wins, 635 points), Shane van Gisbergen (3 wins), and William Byron (1 win, 686 points) round out the winningest drivers just inside the top five—guaranteed playoff spots by virtue of their victories.
Playoff Locks (By Wins or Points)
With the structure giving priority to race winners, the following drivers have provisionally clinched playoff berths:
Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Van Gisbergen, Byron, Blaney, Briscoe, Logano, Chastain, Cindric, Berry (all with at least one win or substantial points cushions).
The Bubble and the Cutoff Line: Intense Scramble
Current 16th: Bubba Wallace (+16 pts)
Bubba Wallace currently clings to the 16th and final playoff spot, 16 points ahead of the cut. Wallace has not won, but steady, mistake-free racing and seven top-10s have kept him afloat. With several ovals ahead, his challenge will be to maintain that margin as fast-charging rivals nip at his heels.
Ryan Preece (-16), Kyle Busch (-39), Ty Gibbs (-52): Chasing the Cut
Ryan Preece had a crucial Dover with a solid finish but is now 16 points below the cut. For Preece, consistent stage finishes and a potential upset win—especially at a track like Daytona—could be his ticket.
Kyle Busch, normally a playoff lock, is on the outside looking in, 39 points behind Wallace. His season thus far has been marred by uncharacteristic inconsistency (just two top-fives in 21 starts). Unless Busch grabs a win, for the first time since his rookie year, he risks missing the playoffs outright.
Ty Gibbs (-52), another non-winner, remains within mathematical striking distance but will likely need a victory given his current position.
Notable Longshots and Win-or-Bust Names
Michael McDowell (-77), AJ Allmendinger (-80), Erik Jones (-89), and John Hunter Nemechek (-100) all find themselves needing a win or a miraculous series of misfortunes for those above them.
How Did These Drivers Get Here? Stories of Surge—and Slump
Wallace’s Margin: Precision, Not Flash
Wallace’s playoff bid is built on reliability, not fireworks. With three top-5s and seven top-10s, he’s avoided major mistakes. But with only 16 points of cushion and five races remaining, including the wildcards of Daytona and Michigan, every point in every stage could be crucial. If he falters in even one race, the door is open for hungry chasers like Preece or Gibbs.
Blaney and Briscoe: Building Security
Ryan Blaney (7th, 576 points, 1 win) and Chase Briscoe (8th, 570 points, 1 win) both have done enough to cool playoff fears. Blaney’s string of top-fives and aggressive stage racing have solidified his slot, while Briscoe’s near-win at Dover (second place) and improved summer consistency have distanced him from the bubble, all but locking in their positions barring catastrophe.
Kyle Busch: Unfamiliar Territory
A two-time champion, Busch (15th in points) faces an extraordinary playoff risk. With only two top-5 finishes and several mid-pack results since May, Busch is now 39 points below Wallace. Historically, Busch can clutch out a must-win scenario—like at Daytona, where he’s a former winner—but even a single mistake or bad break in the next five races could end his playoff hopes.
Preece and Gibbs: “Stage Hunter” Tactics
Ryan Preece, 17th and 16 points short of the cut, and Ty Gibbs, 19th and 52 back, both have had strong runs derailed by inconsistency or wrecks. Their best shot: maximize every stage and hope for a Wallace stumble, or steal a win at an unpredictable track like Daytona or Richmond.
News in Brief: NASCAR 2025 Playoff Picture Update
With the playoff field far from settled, the next five races will bring heartache and jubilation—sometimes in the same night. The margin for error is razor-thin, with championship favorites and underdog hopefuls both at risk as the regular season barrels toward Daytona’s high-speed chaos. Buckle up: NASCAR’s 2025 playoff battle may be the most dramatic yet.
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