With only four regular-season races remaining, several big-name drivers are on the outside looking in for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. The latest standings after the Brickyard 400 have created intense speculation about who will make the 16-driver field. With a crowded list of race winners already locking up spots, the window for others to grab a postseason berth is closing fast, leaving some well-known contenders facing a must-win scenario before the cutoff.
Key Highlights
Four races remain before the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff field is finalized.
Ryan Preece sits 42 points below the cut, currently the first driver out.
Kyle Busch (-81) headlines a list of big names in danger of missing the playoffs.
Daytona and Watkins Glen offer unpredictable opportunities for winless drivers to sneak in.
Points deficits make it “win or go home” for most drivers below the line.
Current Standings: Who’s Out of the Playoffs?
The list of drivers outside the playoff cut line is notable, with some championship-caliber names currently in danger of missing the postseason. As of late July 2025, these drivers sit below the cutoff after the Brickyard 400:
| Driver | Points Behind Cutline |
|---|---|
| Ryan Preece | -42 |
| Kyle Busch | -81 |
| Ty Gibbs | -95 |
| AJ Allmendinger | -124 |
| Michael McDowell | -129 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | -134 |
| Erik Jones | -147 |
| Carson Hocevar | -149 |
| Brad Keselowski | -161 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | -165 |
| Zane Smith | -165 |
| Todd Gilliland | -195 |
| Justin Haley | -196 |
| Austin Dillon | -203 |
| Daniel Suárez | -208 |
| Ty Dillon | -213 |
While some drivers have small deficits, the majority face gaps exceeding 100 points, making a climb into the top 16 unlikely without a win.
Why These Drivers Are in Trouble
With 13 race winners already claiming playoff spots—and the regular-season champion guaranteed another—the points pool for winless drivers is thin. Climbing over 40 to 200 points in just four races would require multiple top-five finishes, stage wins, and poor results from bubble drivers ahead.
Kyle Busch’s deficit has shocked many fans and analysts. The two-time champion has struggled to find consistent speed this season and sits 81 points out, making a win his best shot at continuing his playoff streak.
Ty Gibbs and AJ Allmendinger, known for road course prowess, could use Watkins Glen to punch their ticket, but both need a victory to overcome their deficits.
Further down, drivers like Brad Keselowski, Zane Smith, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. are over 160 points behind, leaving little chance to advance without a surprise win in the remaining races. Daytona’s superspeedway chaos in the regular-season finale is expected to be their last, best opportunity.
Who’s on the Bubble and What Could Change
Chris Buescher currently holds the last playoff spot with a 42-point cushion, while Alex Bowman sits 63 points above the line. Both drivers are vulnerable if a new winner emerges from outside the top 16. A single upset victory could drop Buescher—or even Bowman—out of contention, making consistency and risk management critical in the final stretch.
The next four tracks provide a mixed bag of opportunities. Iowa offers a short-track challenge, Watkins Glen favors road course specialists, Richmond rewards long-run speed and pit strategy, and Daytona remains a wild-card event where anything can happen. The uncertainty leaves the door open for desperate drivers to gamble on aggressive strategies or take big risks to secure a win.
The Stakes Heading into the Final Four Races
For most of the drivers below the cut line, the math is simple: win a race or miss the playoffs. With points deficits far too large to make up without help, the remaining events are expected to see aggressive racing, risky calls on pit road, and heightened tension among drivers trying to salvage their seasons.
Kyle Busch’s playoff streak is on the line, Ty Gibbs faces a critical stretch to avoid missing his first full-season playoff bid, and veterans like Keselowski and Allmendinger could be left on the outside looking in. Daytona’s unpredictable finish is already being circled as the potential last-chance battleground where one surprise result could reshuffle the entire playoff picture.
As the regular season winds down, every lap and every position gained will matter. Any new winner from below the line could knock a bubble driver out, while multiple new winners would completely change the current playoff structure.
News in Brief: Drivers to Miss 2025 NASCAR Cup Playoffs
With just four races left in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, several major names, including Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, and Brad Keselowski, are at risk of missing the playoffs. Points deficits ranging from 40 to over 200 leave most drivers in “must-win” mode, especially with 13 winners already filling playoff spots. Upcoming races at Watkins Glen and Daytona offer last-chance opportunities for upset victories that could shake up the field. Expect aggressive racing and bold strategies as playoff dreams hang in the balance.
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