As the 2025 postseason approaches, the spotlight is sharply on Kyle Larson, whose campaign, described by many as the
“Kyle Larson NASCAR playoffs 2025 preview,”
is clouded by a notable dip in form since the infamous Indy-Charlotte Double misstep. While Larson‘s results and statistics over the past several weeks paint a picture of unpredictability, fans and analysts alike are questioning if he can find the spark needed to contend for another title.
Recent Performance and Team Dynamics Heading Into the Playoffs
Larson’s most recent stretch has been far from typical for a driver of his caliber. Over the last ten races, he has managed an average of just 22.4 points per event, finishing 18.7 on average, with only 31 laps led and four top-10 finishes, including just two in the top-five. Notably, his results at Nashville Superspeedway (eighth) and Michigan (fifth) barely registered in stage points, offering little to boost his playoff outlook.
While Larson struggled to maintain his momentum, fellow Hendrick Motorsports teammates have surged ahead. Chase Elliott mounted a fierce challenge against William Byron, who eventually secured the regular season championship before the finale. Alex Bowman, meanwhile, became the highest points earner in the last ten races by consistently capitalizing on others’ mishaps, such as Chris Buescher‘s setbacks. Amidst team shifts, the lingering question remains whether Larson, a Championship 4 qualifier every other year since his 2021 win, can once again rise to the occasion or fall short of expectations this fall.
Highlights and Setbacks: Tracing the Arc of Larson’s Season
Despite recent difficulties, the 2025 season hasn’t been devoid of high points for Larson. In the spring, he put together a remarkable seven-week surge, capturing almost every other race. He took advantage at Homestead-Miami Speedway in race six, winning when others faltered, then went on to lead a commanding 411 of 500 laps at Bristol three weeks later. Another three weeks after, he notched a win at Kansas, leading 221 out of 267 laps.
Even at tracks where he didn’t reach the checkered flag first, Larson showed his signature speed. He led significant laps at Las Vegas and Texas and opened strong at Charlotte, leading early before a race-ending crash dropped him to 37th. However, fatigue from a difficult race at Indianapolis seemed to cast a shadow moving forward. Since Charlotte, his production dropped: only 31 laps led in 12 starts, a slip to fourth in points, and missing any additional playoff points.
Entering the summer with 23 playoff points, Larson is poised to add roughly seven more from his standings. While the summer stretch has exposed some shortcomings, his overall season stats provide reason for optimism as the playoffs open with tracks tailored to his strengths, such as Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol.
A Track-By-Track Look at Larson’s Playoff Prospects
Historically, drivers like Larson atop the points standings have fared well in the first playoff round, which features Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol—a group of tracks where he has previously excelled. Should Larson avoid misfortune, advancing through this stage should be within reach.
The following round includes New Hampshire, Kansas, and the Charlotte Roval. With Kansas representing one of his latest victories, confidence should be higher here, barring the unpredictable twists the Roval can bring.
In the Round of 8, stakes rise with events at Las Vegas, Talladega, and Martinsville. If Larson starts strong in September—securing quality results at Darlington and Bristol—he could generate the momentum necessary for deeper progression. Las Vegas is arguably his best shot to clinch a spot in the Phoenix finale, provided he avoids costly errors.
Talladega remains a wild card for all contenders, Larson included; yet, he’s defied odds there recently, finishing as high as second and fourth, even with a well-documented dislike for superspeedways. Lastly, Martinsville has seen him finish sixth or better in his last six appearances, setting the stage for a possible Championship 4 berth.
When it comes to Phoenix, the final battleground, Toyota drivers such as Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell—plus Hendrick teammate William Byron—emerged as frontrunners earlier in the year. Larson, though, was in contention when Hamlin and Bell battled to the line in the spring, suggesting he cannot be counted out if he arrives in top form.
Larson’s 2025 By the Numbers: Strengths and Weaknesses
Larson’s key metrics this season offer a nuanced portrait of his campaign. To date, he has notched three wins—at Homestead-Miami, Bristol, and Kansas—along with 11 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes. He’s earned one pole position and led 882 of 5,962 laps, despite two DNFs and a 14.2 average finish.
His strengths remain clear: exceptional speed, versatility at different tracks, and elite driving skill. Yet, a weak summer segment has raised real concerns about whether he can revive his trademark momentum just as the stakes reach their zenith.
What’s at Stake for Larson—And for the 2025 NASCAR Title Fight?
The 2025 playoffs bring a tense crossroads for Kyle Larson, as well as for Hendrick Motorsports as a whole. With key competitors like Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Chris Buescher, and the Toyota entrants led by Hamlin and Bell all in play, Larson’s path to a second Bill France Cup will require both flawless performance and perhaps, timely luck.
With rounds set on tracks where Larson has excelled, his path remains open if he can capitalize early and steady his season. Ultimately, with so much riding on each playoff stage and the margin for error thinner than ever, all eyes are on whether the “Young Money” can once again live up to his formidable reputation in November, potentially bringing another title home to the Hendrick Motorsports stable.
