Early in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Joe Gibbs Racing has taken a commanding lead with strong results, but Austin Cindric questions if Denny Hamlin’s 2025 Cup playoff chances are truly secure. At this stage, Chase Briscoe claimed victory at Darlington and Denny Hamlin followed with a win at Gateway, with nearly all JGR drivers finishing in the top ten. Even so, Cindric of Team Penske Racing believes it’s premature to declare JGR the clear favorites for the championship finale.
On a recent episode of the Door Bumper Clear podcast, Cindric analyzed the challenge posed by Joe Gibbs Racing. The team, with Denny Hamlin at the forefront, has won ten of the first 28 races this season, outpacing much of the competition. Yet, Cindric flagged the unpredictable nature of the playoffs as a reason to remain cautious about crowning a frontrunner so soon.
The veteran driver discussed how the performance of various drivers and teams fluctuates over the season, making it tough to select a true championship favorite. Even though JGR has shown impressive consistency and speed so far, Cindric wondered if they could maintain the same level of performance through the upcoming eight races that lead to the final four.
“You look at the season, it’s really hard to pick [a championship favorite]. The ebbs and flows of who’s at dominate strength, I mean, right now, it’s the Gibbs guys. They’ve started the playoffs off extremely strong with all their playoff cars. But in eight weeks’ time, is that still the same? That’s my biggest question.” —Austin Cindric, Team Penske Driver
Focusing on Denny Hamlin, who has celebrated five wins this season and is regarded as the most in-form driver, Cindric highlighted the dual pursuit — both the championship and a landmark 60th Cup Series win. Given this, he remarked that it would be unwise to assume Hamlin and his team have everything figured out with so much racing left on the calendar.
“From what I’ve heard from him talking, Denny sounds just as motivated to get 60 [wins] as he is to get a championship, so it should be interesting to see how that all plays out. I’m not gonna just sit here after the first two playoff races and think, ah, Gibbs has it under control.” —Austin Cindric, Team Penske Driver
Perspectives from Bubba Wallace’s Spotter on Hamlin’s Prospects
In the same discussion, Freddie Kraft, the spotter for Bubba Wallace of 23XI Racing (a team co-owned by Denny Hamlin), weighed in on Hamlin’s shot at breaking through to the finale. Kraft acknowledged that Hamlin is likely to achieve his 60th Cup race victory during the 2025 season, but stressed that crossing the line as champion at Phoenix is a complex challenge, particularly with Team Penske’s strong recent record at the venue.
“I think he does win at least one more [race] before the season ends, but Phoenix is hard. Phoenix is going to be tough because there’s an organization that the guy to my left [Austin Cindric] drives for that’s been pretty (expletive) good there for the last three years and we just need to hope that we can somehow shove them out of the final four to give us a better shot at it.” —Freddie Kraft, Spotter for Bubba Wallace
The No. 11 team appears to have hit their stride with a strong package for both qualifying and race pace, consistently finishing near the front. Still, to seize the title that has escaped them since 2019, Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing must sustain this high level of performance, particularly in the season’s final weeks when the pressure mounts and only flawless execution will suffice.
What Lies Ahead for Hamlin and His Rivals
As the 2025 Cup playoffs continue, the competition remains open, with many teams and drivers, including Austin Cindric and Team Penske, vying to disrupt Joe Gibbs Racing’s momentum and clinch their own spot in the championship round. Denny Hamlin’s 2025 Cup playoff chances, while undeniably strong given his win tally and current form, remain subject to unpredictable race outcomes and surging rivals. The coming weeks promise high drama and emotional intensity as the field battles for coveted Final Four positions and the ultimate championship.
