The Hendrick Motorsports playoff outlook faces uncertainty, even as Chase Elliott claimed victory in Kansas while Toyota teams controlled most of the race. Despite this win, experts and analysts remain cautious about Hendrick’s ability to maintain momentum in the playoffs, especially with competitors like Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Team Penske looking strong as the postseason progresses.
Elliott’s Win Shines Amid Toyota’s Kansas Dominance
At Kansas Speedway’s Round of 12, Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing—both Toyota-backed teams—led a commanding 216 of 273 laps. Chase Elliott, the only Hendrick Motorsports driver to reach Victory Lane, managed a critical late-race move on Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace to secure the win. Kyle Larson and William Byron, Hendrick’s other playoff drivers, finished sixth and ninth, respectively.
Despite this achievement, skepticism surrounds Hendrick’s standing compared to its rivals.
“We’re not gonna hear the same level of oh my gosh, these guys are unbeatable that we heard last week at New Hampshire about Penske and the flat tracks because they didn’t even win the race today. But people should be saying that about the Toyotas after today going to Vegas,”
said Jeff Gluck, NASCAR analyst, reflecting on the impressive Toyota performance and the challenge Hendrick faces moving forward.
Gluck added,
“But it’s one of those things where you look at the speed and I just don’t know how you’re going to overcome that at Vegas. Obviously, things happen, and crazy stuff happens but yikes.”
Although Elliott is now guaranteed a spot in the Round of 8, with Larson secured by 54 points and Byron above the cutline by 40 points, the overall perception is that Hendrick’s path only gets tougher.
Schedule Poses Additional Challenges for Hendrick Motorsports
The upcoming playoff stretch raises crucial questions for Hendrick’s chances against strong rivals like Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing. Kyle Larson, despite being a perennial contender, has not won a race since early May in Kansas. William Byron’s recent victory at Iowa Speedway did little to dispel doubts, as inconsistencies have marked his recent performances. Jordan Bianchi, a reporter from The Athletic, highlighted the unfavorable schedule ahead, suggesting it offers few advantages for Hendrick teams.
“I picked Kyle Larson to win the championship and it’s very hard to count out Kyle Larson and Cliff Daniels, but we talked about at the beginning of the show, I’m looking at this going I think a driver from Hendrick Motorsports winning the championship this year, a lot is going to have to go their way because of Las Vegas, because of Martinsville and because of Phoenix,”
Bianchi noted. He elaborated that none of these tracks marks a clear favorite for any current Hendrick driver:
“There isn’t a track the rest of the way where you’re going to look at anybody from Hendrick Motorsports and say they’re the favorite. There isn’t.”
Toyota and Penske Remain Formidable Opponents
Vegas is shaping up to favor Toyota’s speed, with Talladega likely to suit Team Penske’s stable, especially drivers like Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. Bianchi observed,
“You go to Vegas, it’s going to be Toyota. You go to Talladega, I would put the Penske cars up there, and then you’ve got Phoenix and Martinsville and it’s going to be the 22 [Joey Logano] and the 12 [Ryan Blaney], especially the 12. There isn’t a team right now from Hendrick Motorsports that scares me. That’s a sad reality, even though Chase Elliott won today.”
Jeff Gluck concurred, particularly if Penske drivers advance to the Championship 4.
“If there’s a Penske car in the final four, they’re going to be the favorite,”
Gluck stated. He then pointed to JGR’s bench strength with drivers like Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin as additional obstacles.
“Other than that, you look at [Christopher] Bell, [Chase] Briscoe, [Denny] Hamlin. But even if a Hendrick car is in there, I just don’t see it right now. I don’t see them running that well at those types of tracks. I don’t know, we’ll just see what happens.”
Looking Ahead: Hendrick’s Playoff Fate Uncertain
As the playoffs advance towards key races at Las Vegas, Martinsville, and Phoenix, the Hendrick Motorsports playoff outlook appears less assured than their recent victory suggests. Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Kyle Larson are all safe for now, but their team faces an uphill battle on tracks that historically favor their primary adversaries from Toyota and Penske. The coming races will test whether Hendrick can defy expectations and seize control, or if their rivals will capitalize to claim the championship.
