Denny Hamlin Championship 4 chances remain a top storyline as the NASCAR Cup Series heads toward the season’s decisive rounds. With history largely on his side, Hamlin’s recent performance and statistical record suggest strong odds—but past patterns also reveal the path is far from certain.
Hamlin’s Season Sets a Strong Foundation
This year, Denny Hamlin became the first driver to win four races in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series, securing victories at Martinsville, Darlington, Michigan, and Dover. Statistically, drivers who have claimed four wins in a season have made the Championship 4 in seven out of the last eight seasons, tracing back to when playoff points were added to the format in 2017. The only exception came when Kyle Larson failed to reach the Championship 4 in the previous season.
Hamlin, who races for Joe Gibbs Racing, is determined not to repeat Larson’s outcome. After his win at Dover Motor Speedway in July, he has continued to put in consistent performances, including a playoff victory at Gateway and a commanding run at Kansas, where he led 159 of 273 laps and swept both stages before finishing second.
Hamlin emphasized the focus required for postseason success.
“It’s the goal at the beginning of the year is to make the Championship 4,”
he said before the playoffs.
“To do that, you obviously have to put in some work during the regular season and you’ve got to perform well in the playoffs.”
— Denny Hamlin, Driver
Statistical Trends and Playoff Performance
Hamlin is not only relying on determination—he trusts the numbers. Drawing from his own history, he acknowledged,
“I think our record in the Playoffs speaks for itself. Our average finish drops every year in the Playoffs. We run better every year in the final 10 than what we do in the regular season,”
he said.—Denny Hamlin, Driver
Backing up his words, Hamlin’s average finish has improved in the playoff stretch compared to the regular season average. For example, in 2025 his average finish improved from 13.9 to 13.3 after five playoff races, while similar improvements were seen in previous seasons—down from 15.0 to 13.9 in 2024 and from 19.0 to 15.6 in 2022.
Despite this, Hamlin has yet to reach the Championship 4 during NASCAR’s NextGen era, which began in 2022. However, he has previously qualified for the finale in four seasons: 2014 and three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021.
Facing the Cutoff: Points Advantage and the Road Ahead
As the cutoff race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval approaches, Hamlin is in a strong position with a 48-point buffer above the elimination line and sits fourth in points. This advantage almost assures his advancement beyond the current round. Still, the challenge grows steeper in the next playoff phase.
Reflecting on the intensity of the later rounds, Hamlin explained,
“We’ve never cruised through that third round. It doesn’t matter which racetrack it’s been, it always gets tight there,”
Hamlin said.
“With Talladega being in the second-to-last round, I just don’t know how many points you would have to have to feel comfortable going into that round.”
—Denny Hamlin, Driver
Should Hamlin advance to the Championship 4, he’ll attempt to become just the fourth driver to secure a Cup title after winning four races in that same season. If not, he would become the first since 2017 to twice miss out on the championship after being the first to four wins that year and reaching the Championship 4. Notable drivers who accomplished similar feats include Martin Truex Jr. in 2017, Kyle Busch in 2019, and Kyle Larson in 2021, among others such as Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Hamlin himself in prior seasons.
Chasing Career Milestones and All-Time Status
Away from championship talk, Hamlin’s career statistics continue to impress. With 59 wins, he holds the record for most victories by a driver without a Cup Series title. He is just one win shy of tying Kevin Harvick for 10th on the Cup Series all-time wins list, a personal milestone he has publicly called a major career goal.
Hamlin also reached a significant mark at Kansas by earning his 374th career top-10 finish, tying with Ricky Rudd for 10th on NASCAR’s all-time list. His next top-10 would move him into sole possession of the position, matching seven-time Cup champ Jimmie Johnson for ninth.
Denny Hamlin continues to pursue history at every juncture, balancing personal milestones with the drive for an elusive championship—his Denny Hamlin Championship 4 chances may be strong, but the pressure to finally seal his legacy has never been more intense.
