Team Penske is suddenly on the brink of a NASCAR playoffs crisis, with Dale Earnhardt Jr. warning that Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano may both fail to make the Championship 4 after struggles in Las Vegas. The possibility has sparked concern about the team’s streak amid the tense playoff atmosphere, putting Dale Earnhardt Jr. NASCAR playoffs commentary in sharp focus.
Penske Drivers Facing Elimination After Las Vegas Setbacks
Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, both considered top contenders just weeks ago, now find themselves in jeopardy after disappointing results in the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Round of 8 opener. Blaney’s race was derailed by a blown tire on Lap 73, causing him to fall 31 points below the cutoff for advancement. Logano, despite a sixth-place finish, remains 24 points away from the final transfer position into the Championship 4.
Previously, the idea of Team Penske missing out on the Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway seemed unlikely. Now, their continued playoff presence is uncertain, with both drivers—especially Blaney—described by Dale Earnhardt Jr. as being in a must-win scenario at both Talladega Superspeedway and Martinsville Speedway.
“He’s [Blaney] got to win Talladega, he’s got to win Martinsville, one of the two,”
Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR analyst and former driver, said on the Dale Jr. Download podcast.
“You’re not gonna point your way in against the guys you’re racing against. These are the best eight teams in the series. … He’s in a must-win. I just feel like he is. He’s 31 out, but I just think he’s gotta win. Look, he could go have a good Talladega and come into Martinsville in the teens, but I mean, odds are really against him pointing his way in. I don’t know of any people who would feel like that’s realistic.”
— Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR Analyst
Team owner Roger Penske’s operation has won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship every year since the launch of the Next Gen era. This consistency made them strong favorites to go deep into the 2023 postseason, but the landscape shifted after Vegas, placing tremendous pressure on both Blaney and Logano and raising doubts within the NASCAR community.
Battling History and Track Records at Talladega and Martinsville
Hope remains for the Penske drivers, however, as both have established themselves at challenging tracks. Blaney and Logano each boast three career victories at Talladega Superspeedway, a track known for its unpredictability and opportunities for aggressive overtaking. At Martinsville Speedway, Logano has one win and has not finished outside the top ten in his last twelve races. For Blaney, Martinsville has been particularly kind: he won the fall race there both of the past two years, securing his path into the Championship 4 each time.
Still, their recent deficit means that strong finishes might not be enough this time around. As emphasized by Earnhardt Jr., the level of competition and the point gap make it unlikely either driver can simply coast through without a trip to victory lane. The stakes are clear: both drivers must go all-out in the next two races to avoid a Penske absence at the Cup Series finale.
“Either way, who cares. Win your way in, point your way in, whatever. Logano’s minus-24, Blaney’s minus-31, they’re both in a bad spot. They both may not get to Phoenix.”
— Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR Analyst
Penske’s Potential Exit Could Clear the Path for Denny Hamlin
If Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano fail to advance, NASCAR’s championship race could undergo a major shake-up. According to Earnhardt Jr., should Team Penske not have a car in Phoenix, Denny Hamlin may finally seize his first Cup Series title after multiple near-misses in previous years. Earnhardt Jr. referenced recent comments by Hamlin after New Hampshire, where Hamlin voiced concern about Penske’s strength on tracks similar to Phoenix, underscoring the widespread perception that Penske cars are always contenders in the title race.
“Everybody feels like that if a Penske goes to Phoenix, they are the favorite to win, and I would agree with that,”
Earnhardt Jr. explained.
“If a Penske car doesn’t get to Phoenix, I mean, this is Denny’s year. Here it is. Denny was saying after New Hampshire, ‘Boy, we’re screwed. The Penske cars are so good. New Hampshire is very similar to Phoenix. That was the tell, tell of yep, they still got it. When we get to Phoenix, I expect them to be on top.’”
— Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR Analyst
The prospect grows even more dramatic due to Hamlin’s ongoing lawsuit against NASCAR, raising the possibility that he could win the championship while still locked in a legal battle with the organization. Earnhardt Jr. summed up the sense of unpredictability and significance around the situation:
“If there’s not a Penske car in the top, this thing is blown wide open. And how about this, Denny winning the trophy while he’s suing NASCAR? Oh my gosh.”
— Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR Analyst
Complex Playoff Picture Sets Stage for High Drama
The next two playoff races—at Talladega and Martinsville—will be crucial in determining whether Penske can keep its championship aspirations alive. The Penske drivers must rely on both their talent and their strong track records to earn critical victories, but the pressure is immense as only wins can realistically guarantee a spot in the Championship 4. NASCAR fans and observers will be watching closely as the playoff drama intensifies, knowing that a Penske exit would not only end a championship streak but could also reshape the Cup Series title race entirely, possibly paving the way for Denny Hamlin’s long-awaited triumph.
