Kevin Harvick predicts Ty Gibbs win Chicago during this weekend’s highly anticipated NASCAR street race in Chicago City, believing it will upend expectations set by Shane van Gisbergen’s previous successes. Harvick, joined by co-hosts Kaitlyn Vincie and Mamba Smith on their Happy Hour podcast, shared their contrasting outlooks on who will claim victory in the third edition of the Cup and Xfinity race through Chicago’s streets, a race where van Gisbergen has been dominant before.
Shane van Gisbergen, who took the win at the inaugural Chicago Cup race in 2023 and triumphed in last year’s Xfinity event, returns as a favorite, especially bolstered by his recent victory in Mexico City. The New Zealand driver’s ability to deliver results on street circuits and his momentum have reinforced his position as a top contender according to many observers in the field. However, Harvick, himself a Cup Series champion from 2014, sees a new challenger emerging from within the Joe Gibbs Racing stable, pointing to weather conditions and team changes as critical factors that could shape the race’s outcome.
Kevin Harvick Places Faith in Ty Gibbs Amid Unpredictable Forecast
On the podcast, Harvick weighed the impact of potential rain on Sunday and leaned towards a scientific approach for his prediction. He considered the 50% chance of precipitation, a significant variable for teams and drivers, to be crucial in shaping the race’s dynamics.
“I’m going to look at the weather forecast. I’m going to make this super technical. Let’s see. And I’m not going to tell you if it’s raining, because you’re not changing your pick. 10-day, 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Hmm. Yep. I’m going to go with Ty Gibbs.”
—Kevin Harvick, Happy Hour podcast
Ty Gibbs, nicknamed the JGR youngster, is yet to secure his first Cup Series win, but the challenging conditions and Chicago’s unique layout could provide the breakthrough he’s been seeking. Earlier street and road courses have given Gibbs opportunities, but he has so far been thwarted by misfortune or inexperience, making this event a possible turning point for his career.
Kaitlyn Vincie and Mamba Smith Offer Alternative Picks
Kaitlyn Vincie, Harvick’s podcast co-host, stuck to the proven competitor, opting for van Gisbergen, despite noting the expanding pool of experienced street racers and acknowledging the Kiwi’s upset by Alex Bowman last year. She described her selection as the “obvious” choice, even as other drivers gain valuable experience on street circuits.
“My pick for the winner in Chicago is (Shane van Gisbergen). Low-hanging f*cking fruit. I need help right now. I need help!”
—Kaitlyn Vincie
Mamba Smith, known for selecting unexpected contenders, chose Tyler Reddick, a skilled road course racer from 23XI Racing who has yet to win in 2025. Smith pointed to Reddick’s previous strong performances at Chicago as a sign that Toyota could see a return to victory lane.
“I’m really, honestly, I’m really up in the air about who I should pick on this one. And I think I’m going to go with Tyler Reddick. He’s had speed there before. I think he kind of gave one up there before. And they need to keep these good runs going. So, I’m going to go Tyler Reddick.”
—Mamba Smith
Ty Gibbs Enters Chicago With Revamped Support Team and Renewed Drive
As Ty Gibbs heads into Chicago, he’s aiming to break a string of disappointing finishes, while his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have already clinched playoff spots with race wins. Road courses have long suited Gibbs, who has come close to victory, only to be sidelined by ill-timed incidents or bad luck.
In response to Gibbs’ struggles, Joe Gibbs Racing has enacted strategic changes by moving Chris Gabehart, the team’s competition director and former crew chief for Denny Hamlin, into the role of race strategist for Chicago. This shift is intended to bolster crew chief Tyler Allen, who has battled to turn the team’s evident speed into race wins.
“Let’s call it unorthodox for this garage. But the reality is that once [Joe Gibbs Racing] got three cars in the playoffs, when you look at it simply, we’ve got one left we’re trying to get in.”
—Chris Gabehart
This restructuring underscores JGR’s commitment to ensuring all four cars make the playoffs. The No. 54 team’s performance has lagged behind fellow JGR entries, leading some to believe that a change in pit strategies and in-race decision-making could be pivotal in shaking up their trajectory. Gabehart’s varied experience and tactical approach are seen as a welcome adjustment, potentially improving the prospects for Ty Gibbs, who is eager to prove himself among NASCAR’s top tier at one of the season’s most challenging circuits.
The Race’s Broader Implications for Drivers and Teams
The upcoming Cup and Xfinity races in Chicago not only highlight individual rivalries, such as between Ty Gibbs and Shane van Gisbergen, but also showcase the strategic thinking required by top teams like Joe Gibbs Racing. A win for Gibbs would mark a notable upset and underscore the impact of calculated risks and new team structures under intense conditions, with possible rain further compounding the drama.
Kevin Harvick’s prediction bucks the prevailing sentiment and suggests the sport’s established stars face increasing pressure from ambitious up-and-comers, armed with revamped support systems and informed by lessons from past challenges. The outcome in Chicago could significantly shape both the playoff outlook and the reputations of drivers like Gibbs, van Gisbergen, and Reddick as the season unfolds.
