The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs have already delivered their share of drama, but a new theory being floated by fans takes it to another level entirely. What if Tyler Reddick—despite potentially racing his way into the Championship 4—never even gets to start the Phoenix finale?
Sound ridiculous? Maybe. But fans across NASCAR social media aren’t ruling it out, especially given Reddick’s status with 23XI Racing, a team currently embroiled in a high-stakes legal battle over charter rights. The result has sparked a chaotic scenario: could rival teams like Team Penske and Wood Brothers Racing enter just enough “open” cars to knock Reddick out of the race altogether?
Let’s break down what fans are saying, why this is even a conversation, and what recent court filings may mean for how this wild theory could play out.
Key Highlights
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Tyler Reddick’s potential playoff advancement raises questions about non-chartered teams and Phoenix eligibility
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Fan theories suggest Team Penske and Wood Brothers could flood the field with extra open entries
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Supporters argue there are limits preventing this; others say the loopholes are very real
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Recent legal battles over charters between NASCAR, 23XI, and Front Row Motorsports are intensifying
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Reddick’s Phoenix history makes a DNS unlikely—but not impossible if entries exceed the cap
The Theory: How Teams Could Game the System
The idea began with a simple “what if”: what if Tyler Reddick, driving for a team potentially without a charter, makes the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway—but there aren’t enough guaranteed spots left to get him into the race?
With only 40 cars allowed to start, and 36 chartered spots spoken for, the remaining four go to “open” entries. If Reddick’s team loses its charter—something that could happen due to the ongoing lawsuit—he’d be fighting for one of those limited open slots. If enough rival organizations field additional entries, and if Reddick’s team falters in qualifying, he could theoretically miss the race entirely.
One fan took it a step further:
“Let’s say Tyler Reddick makes it into the Championship 4 at Phoenix without a charter, and a Team Penske car made it as well. What’s stopping Wood Bros + Penske from entering four additional non-chartered cars?”
Fans Weigh In: Realistic or Reaching?
The idea may sound extreme, but it’s stirred real conversation. Some fans pointed out how far-fetched it would be:
“Penske would be wasting a ton of effort and resources to accomplish exactly nothing.”
“That would cost way too much money for a 1% chance of Reddick having a mechanical failure or spinning on his qualifying lap.”
Others, however, dug into the technicalities:
“Aren’t open cars in playoffs guaranteed a spot?”
“My understanding is Playoff cars are treated like Charter cars, unless that changed under the most recent agreement.”
That’s the heart of the matter. Historically, if an open car makes the playoffs, it’s treated as guaranteed a spot—so long as it’s still eligible. But with the new 2025 charter agreement, things have changed, and transparency has become a major issue.
Legal Chaos: Charter Lawsuit Adds Fire to the Speculation
This theory gained momentum thanks to the explosive legal battle between NASCAR, 23XI Racing (Reddick’s team), and Front Row Motorsports.
As of mid-July 2025, both teams have filed new documents in federal court seeking a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent NASCAR from revoking or reselling their charters. On July 9, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals denied the teams’ initial request to retain charter rights during litigation, siding with NASCAR on a controversial “release clause.”
That opens the door for NASCAR to strip charters as early as July 16.
If that happens, Reddick’s No. 45 car would become an “open” entry for the rest of the season—including the playoffs.
Their legal team warned:
“The six cars fielded by the two organizations wouldn’t be guaranteed starting positions … and may also have to repay the money they received through the season’s first 20 races.”
The worst-case scenario? Reddick makes the Championship 4, but doesn’t qualify for the finale.
Can Tyler Reddick Actually Miss the Race?
Historically speaking, probably not. Even critics of the theory point to Reddick’s strength at Phoenix:
“Reddick’s worst starting spot ever at Phoenix is 29th, and that was his first start. He hasn’t started worse than 12th in the Next Gen era.”
He also doesn’t have a track record of struggling in qualifying. If his team knows they simply need to run a clean lap to make the show, they will almost certainly do so—barring sabotage or a last-minute technical issue.
News in Brief: Fans Discuss Tyler Reddick Misses the Phoenix Finale
A bizarre but compelling fan theory suggests Tyler Reddick could be boxed out of the 2025 Phoenix Championship race if too many open entries flood the grid. With Reddick’s team, 23XI Racing, at risk of losing its charter amid a major legal battle with NASCAR, fans are debating whether teams like Penske and Wood Brothers Racing could exploit loopholes to limit playoff competition. While Reddick’s Phoenix record and qualifying strength make the idea far-fetched, recent court decisions and playoff eligibility questions have added a layer of uncertainty that fans—and teams—can’t ignore.
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