Bubba Wallace’s playoff chances are in question after a promising start to the NASCAR Cup Series season gave way to recent struggles, with Kevin Harvick raising alarms about the performance of the No. 23 toyota/”>Toyota team. The team, which began the year on an upswing, now faces uncertainty as it clings to a narrow margin above the playoff cut line, making the coming races crucial for Wallace’s hopes.
Early Momentum Fades for Wallace and 23XI Racing
During a recent episode of Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour, Harvick expressed his surprise at how quickly the outlook for Bubba Wallace and his team diminished after their impressive start.
“I think the thing that’s surprised me about Bubba is just how well they started the season. Like, ‘Oh my gosh, this No. 23 team is going to be on fire,’ and the wheels have just fallen off of the No. 23 car,”
—Kevin Harvick, Former NASCAR Driver. Harvick referenced Wallace’s issues in Chicago, including a difficult qualifying session and a race blunder with the No. 48 car, which cost him valuable points at a critical moment in the season.
The struggles have not been isolated to Wallace’s car. Harvick highlighted broader issues within the 23XI Racing organization, noting that Tyler Reddick, Wallace’s teammate, has also failed to meet expectations this year.
“It’s just been really, really all over the place, for not only the No. 23, but the No. 45. The No. 45 hasn’t done anything that we expected him to do, from a speed standpoint, race standpoint. They’ve been off. We talk about the lawsuit and things like that, but they’ve just been off, compared to where the No. 23 started, and the No. 45 never even had that shining moment yet.”
—Kevin Harvick, Former NASCAR Driver. The mention of ongoing legal matters with NASCAR hints at turbulence off the track as well, possibly affecting all 23XI Racing teams.
Playoff Picture: Slim Margin and Unpredictable Challenges
Bubba Wallace currently sits three points above the playoff cutoff line — a precarious position as the season heads towards crucial summer races. This small advantage offers little breathing room, especially with unpredictable tracks looming before the Round of 16. A single win by a driver currently below Wallace in the standings could push him out of playoff contention.
Wallace will face a significant test at Dover International Speedway next, one of his better circuits. Even so, with only a three-point cushion, just one tough race could drastically shift the playoff picture. This high-stakes atmosphere is adding to the pressure as Wallace looks for a path to secure his spot.
What Needs to Happen for Wallace to Advance
The most straightforward way for Bubba Wallace to guarantee his playoff position would be to score a race win, but recent history shows how stiff the challenge has become for the No. 23 team. Wallace has not claimed victory in the last two seasons, leading to previous playoff misses. Expectations from sponsors, team leadership, and fans have only grown, making a repeat of past shortcomings unacceptable in 2025.
Tyler Reddick, his 23XI Racing teammate, claimed the regular season championship in 2024 and advanced to the Championship 4, yet he, too, finds himself winless this year. These lackluster results, combined with external distractions like legal proceedings involving NASCAR, might be impacting both drivers’ performances and morale.
Spotlight Intensifies as Season Progresses
As the NASCAR Cup Series calendar advances into the summer, scrutiny on Bubba Wallace will escalate. Observers and fans will watch to see whether Wallace can rediscover his early-season form, grab a needed victory, and lock up his playoff berth. Otherwise, conversation will turn to what the future holds for both Wallace and the underperforming 23XI Racing program.
For Bubba Wallace, every upcoming race carries significant weight. The push for Victory Lane is not just about a single win, but about keeping realistic hopes alive for a strong playoff run in a turbulent season marked by inconsistency and heightened expectations.
