Austin Dillon Richmond playoff chances have become a hot topic as the NASCAR Cup Series approaches its cutoff, with the field still unsettled following last weekend’s race at Watkins Glen International. With the playoff picture hanging in the balance, drivers are heading to Richmond, Virginia, where surprise outcomes have altered postseason hopes before and could do so again this year.
The Current Playoff Landscape and Key Probabilities
The competition has intensified with just two races left before the 16-driver playoff lineup is set. Racing Insights provides critical playoff probability data for drivers heading into Richmond. Chris Buescher, who recently secured a top-five finish at the New York road course but remains without a regular-season win, sits near the playoff cutoff. He and his RFK Racing teammate Ryan Preece are split by only 34 points, highlighting the fine line between advancing and elimination. Traditionally, Richmond has delivered last-minute disruptions, and with Daytona set to host the season finale, every point counts for those still in contention.
Recent results make it clear that the unexpected can happen at Richmond. The prior season saw Austin Dillon at the heart of controversy during the closing laps. Driving the No. 3 car for Richard Childress Racing, Dillon aggressively navigated the final turn, bumping leader Joey Logano and impacting Denny Hamlin’s car before seizing the checkered flag. Although Dillon was declared the winner initially, he was penalized post-race, losing his hard-won playoff spot.
Austin Dillon: Can He Rewrite the Narrative?
Dillon now faces a chance to redeem himself and alter the story that unfolded last summer. Beyond the post-race debate, he controlled much of the Richmond event, leading 35 laps and positioning himself as the driver to beat until late trouble between Ryan Preece and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. triggered overtime. Dillon enters this week’s race with just a 0.37% chance of making the playoffs according to Racing Insights. Nevertheless, his performances on smaller tracks in 2025, such as Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, Dover, and Iowa, have been solid—never finishing lower than 18th. His most recent effort at Iowa yielded a top-10, suggesting he could still play spoiler if the right circumstances align. Should Dillon clinch another Richmond victory, many drivers near the playoff bubble will find themselves under intense pressure heading into Daytona.
Other Drivers Poised for Big Moves at Richmond
Brad Keselowski is also drawing attention leading into Richmond, carrying a 6.95% playoff probability and strong momentum thanks to a third-place finish at Iowa. Keselowski’s No. 6 Ford set the pace for much of that race, and with better luck during several late-race cautions, he might have punched his ticket to the postseason already. NASCAR Insights notes that Keselowski ranks ninth for points scored over the past 10 races, indicating he is a genuine contender to shake up the grid on Saturday night.
Alex Bowman, with a significant 93.64% probability of playoff qualification, is seeking to officially clinch his spot this weekend. While Bowman is a former Richmond winner, the No. 48 driver has faced challenges on the short track lately, finishing outside the top 16 in four of his last five attempts. However, his recent knack for gathering points, including 13 stage points at Watkins Glen despite a 20th place finish, shows Bowman’s ability to maximize results even when speed isn’t on his side. For Bowman, a bit of early track advantage at Richmond could seal his playoff invitation.
Conflicted Outlook for Drivers on the Bubble
Chris Buescher, currently holding a 69.22% playoff likelihood, is all too familiar with the tension of these closing races. While raw speed and top-five results have kept him in contention, his record at slow short tracks this year raises concerns, such as a 22nd at Iowa and 24th at Martinsville. Despite ranking third in points gained over the latest 10-race window and his past summer win at Richmond, Buescher knows that a shock result from a new winner could put his playoff hopes in jeopardy. Top fives may not be enough should another competitor steal a surprise victory in the next two weeks, nullifying all of his recent gains. The Prosper, Texas native’s success in reaching the postseason semifinals two years ago only intensifies expectations and pressure as the cutoff looms.
The Risks and Emotional Stakes As Playoffs Near
With so much on the line and memories of last season’s dramatic Richmond finish still fresh, the field is bracing for the possibility of another major shakeup. Drivers such as Ryan Preece, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin, who were all entangled in last year’s critical overtime incident, are hoping for cleaner runs this time. Meanwhile, everyone on the bubble will have to contend with the unpredictable nature of short-track racing coupled with the playoff implications that magnify every decision and misstep. NASCAR fans and competitors alike recognize that a single unexpected victory—especially from a driver like Dillon with minimal playoff odds—could completely upend the standings just before the chaos of Daytona.
As Saturday night’s contest approaches, anticipation and anxiety are mounting. The outcome at Richmond has the potential not just to decide who advances but to redefine the entire postseason outlook. All eyes will be on Austin Dillon to see if he can again take center stage and shake up the NASCAR playoff field, leaving bubble drivers and fans on edge as the regular season enters its most unpredictable stretch.
