With just two races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, Richmond looms as a pivotal turning point in the championship battle. Thirteen drivers have already secured playoff berths, but the final three spots remain up for grabs. For those hovering above the cutline, every point matters. For those on the outside, the path is simple but steep—win or face elimination. Richmond’s short-track challenges could make this the race where the playoff picture shifts in dramatic and lasting ways.
Key Highlights
- Thirteen Cup Series drivers are already locked into the 2025 playoffs.
- Three playoff spots remain open heading into Richmond and Daytona.
- Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher hold the final positions on points.
- Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs are among those needing strong results or a win.
- Richmond’s unpredictability and Daytona’s chaos keep the playoff grid unsettled.
The Playoff Structure and the Stakes
Sixteen drivers will advance to the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, which unfold over ten postseason races. Most secure entry through a regular-season win, but with fewer than sixteen different winners this year, points become critical for winless drivers. As of the Watkins Glen race on August 10, thirteen spots are locked by a combination of wins and points. The remaining three positions will be decided by results at Richmond and Daytona, with the potential for a late shake-up if a winless driver takes the checkered flag.
Safely In: The Locked-In Playoff Contenders
The drivers who can approach Richmond without playoff pressure include William Byron, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Josh Berry. Their seasons have been defined by victories and consistent top finishes, allowing them to focus on refining strategies for the postseason.
On the Bubble: Points Racers and Last-Minute Hopefuls
Tyler Reddick’s 701 points give him a cushion, but a surprise winner could make Richmond more stressful. Alex Bowman sits at 644 points, close enough to the cutline that one misstep could cost him. Chris Buescher holds 618 points, needing a clean race to stay in contention. Ryan Preece, Kyle Busch, Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, and Brad Keselowski are in various stages of urgency—either requiring strong points days or outright victories. Any win by a non-playoff driver at Richmond or Daytona would instantly reorder this group.
Drivers Needing a Miracle and the Richmond Factor
Carson Hocevar, Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, John Hunter Nemechek, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zane Smith, Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez, and Justin Haley enter Richmond needing a win to stay alive. Richmond’s 0.75-mile D-shaped oval can create those opportunities with its tire wear, multiple racing grooves, and history of caution-filled events. Pit calls and restart timing often determine who leaves victorious. Veterans may rely on track knowledge, while younger drivers will likely push harder in pursuit of a career-changing result. Daytona the following week will offer one more chance, but its unpredictable nature makes Richmond the more controlled environment for a calculated playoff push.
News in Brief: NASCAR Cup Playoff Before 2025 Richmond
With 13 NASCAR Cup Series playoff spots secured, Richmond will decide the fate of the final three before the Daytona finale. Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, and Chris Buescher currently hold those positions, but drivers like Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs remain in striking distance. Richmond’s short-track unpredictability could allow a winless driver to clinch and knock a points-based contender out. Veterans and young talents alike will take aggressive approaches, knowing every lap matters.
ALSO READ: How to Watch the 2025 NASCAR Richmond Weekend Races
