As the 2025 NASCAR regular season ends, many in the sport are discussing Shane van Gisbergen NASCAR playoff predictions, especially concerning which drivers may not advance past the opening playoff rounds. Denny Hamlin, one of the top competitors in the Cup Series, joined this conversation on his Actions Detrimental podcast, forecasting that rookie Shane van Gisbergen, known as SVG, is at risk of early elimination alongside Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, and Austin Cindric.
“I’ll say Dillon, Berry, Cindric and SVG…(On SVG’s playoff points not being enough) Versus the guys like Bowman, Reddick, Logano, Chastain, Bubba. I think they all overtake, just on speed.
Denny Hamlin on which four drivers will be eliminated first from the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Playoffs
Factors Behind Hamlin’s Predictions for SVG and Other Drivers
The selections of Dillon, Berry, and Cindric for elimination are not unexpected since Dillon and Berry are already below the cut line in current playoff standings, while Cindric is only slightly above it. Despite Shane van Gisbergen’s strong overall points this season, the upcoming tracks in the Round of 16 may not suit him. With his rookie status and a car that hasn’t excelled at certain venues, Hamlin believes SVG could struggle to stay above the elimination line.
The Role of the Schedule and SVG’s Track Record
The Cup Series schedule for the Round of 16 includes Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol—widely regarded as challenging circuits for less experienced drivers. Shane van Gisbergen’s record at these venues is a key point in Hamlin’s reasoning. His finishes at these tracks include 20th at Darlington and 38th at Bristol. Importantly, he has yet to race at Gateway (World Wide Technology Raceway) in the Cup Series, making that stop an additional hurdle.
SVG’s 2025 Season Performance and Upcoming Playoff Hurdles
Looking at van Gisbergen’s 2025 stats: he enters the playoffs with 2,022 points, four wins, five top 10s, four top 5s, three pole positions, three DNFs, and 252 laps led over 26 races. Even with these accomplishments, the lack of prior experience and speed at these particular tracks intensifies the challenge ahead for him and his No. 88 team.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead for Van Gisbergen
The opening playoff round will likely become a close fight for SVG if he hopes to move beyond the Round of 16. If he manages to survive this stage, his chances could improve when the field heads to the Charlotte ROVAL on October 5, a road course where his skills might give him an edge in pursuit of the Round of 8.
Potential Impact on the Playoff Landscape
Hamlin’s assessment highlights how the playoff schedule and track selection can greatly affect Shane van Gisbergen NASCAR playoff predictions. Key figures like Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace have all shown more consistent speed at these circuits, suggesting stiff competition for SVG. The coming rounds will reveal if van Gisbergen’s rookie campaign can stretch further into NASCAR’s championship battle or if, as Hamlin predicts, his playoff run will end sooner than hoped.
