Denny Hamlin’s latest Cup Series triumph not only propelled his Denny Hamlin career win predictions into sharper focus but also raised speculation about how many more victories he might add before retirement. Last week’s win—his 59th—brings new attention to his remaining potential as he nears the end of a celebrated tenure in NASCAR.
Hamlin’s Career at a Turning Point
Hamlin’s recent checkered flag at World Wide Technology Raceway marked a major personal milestone, as well as a landmark 200th Cup win for Toyota. In the aftermath, Hamlin made waves with a memorable interview line:
Get on the bandwagon, or get run over by it.
—Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver
Whether this new quip will gain as much traction as Hamlin’s past one-liners—or provoke the same mixed reactions—remains to be seen. Regardless, NASCAR fans and analysts now find themselves focused on Hamlin’s trajectory and the realistic endgame for his number of career wins.
Contract Extension and Imminent Retirement
The 21-year veteran has signed a contract extension with Joe Gibbs Racing, ensuring he will compete through the 2027 season. Hamlin clarified in his most recent post-race interview that he intends to retire at the close of that deal. This means fans can expect to see Hamlin in action for eight more races this year, followed by full 36-race slates in both 2026 and 2027—unless NASCAR alters its schedule.
When you’re talking about having the countdown 70 to go, that’s kind of assuming the next two-year deal will be your last, right?
Yes. That’s correct.#NASCAR
—Joseph Srigley, NASCAR Reporter
This leaves approximately 80 more chances for Hamlin to secure additional victories, setting the stage for speculation about his final win tally and potential standing on the all-time list.
Projecting Hamlin’s Potential Wins
Historically, Hamlin has emerged victorious in roughly 8.2% of his races. Projecting this win rate over his remaining 80 starts, he could feasibly net another seven victories. This would bring his career total to 66, which is currently ninth on NASCAR’s all-time wins list, just behind Dale Earnhardt’s 76 and ahead of active challenger Kyle Busch—unless Busch adds significantly to his own total.
However, these calculations don’t account for several real-world variables that could affect his chances. Notably, Hamlin has been forthright about his challenges on road or street courses, mentioning this repeatedly on his Actions Detrimental podcast. With one road course left this year and as many as ten spread across the next two seasons, the number of races where Hamlin is a strong contender may be reduced to around 69. Factoring in the unpredictability of superspeedways like Talladega and Atlanta, the estimate drops even further to 63 races where he has a more reliable shot.
Type of Tracks and Variables Affecting Wins
The irregular nature of certain tracks suggests that some wins might prove elusive. For example, while Hamlin could vie for a fourth Daytona 500 or triumph again at Talladega or Atlanta, these events are notoriously unpredictable. As drivers such as Rusty Wallace, Richard Petty, and Jimmie Johnson have shown, success isn’t guaranteed in the closing chapters of a driver’s career.
Hamlin himself addressed the challenge of racing competitively into his mid-40s.
There’s just got to be a means to an end,
said Hamlin.
I’m just not going to leave the sport on my deathbed … just leaking oil, just running in the back of the pack … I have way too much pride for that. I’m way too cocky for that.
—Denny Hamlin, NASCAR Driver
His candid reflection suggests a strong desire to remain competitive and to avoid lingering in the sport past his prime.
Possible Scenarios: How Many More Wins?
With Hamlin’s age and schedule in mind, several scenarios emerge in the landscape of Denny Hamlin career win predictions:
1. No Additional Victories
While it seems unlikely based on his current form, history shows even champions can close their careers on a winless run. Rusty Wallace, Richard Petty, and Jimmie Johnson all retired after extended droughts, and Kevin Harvick did not find victory in his last 48 races. Although Hamlin is unlikely to go winless for the remainder, the competitive nature of NASCAR makes it a possibility that cannot be entirely dismissed.
2. One or Two More Wins
A more measured scenario would see Hamlin claim a win—perhaps even capturing a long-elusive title at Phoenix Raceway—or double up with another triumph at Martinsville. Ending his career with a crowning moment remains a dream scenario available to few drivers.
3. Reaching 65 Career Wins
Reviewing his track record since 2018, Hamlin has consistently found victory lane, averaging several wins per year. If he maintains this performance, three wins each in the next two seasons is realistic, leading him to 65 overall and securing his spot among NASCAR’s elite. His sustained competitiveness at tracks like Bristol Motor Speedway—where he has regularly finished near the front—supports this possibility.
4. Achieving Between 65 and 69 Wins
Maximizing every opportunity over the next two seasons would see Hamlin reach the 65 to 69 win range. To hit the upper part of this spectrum, he needs to capitalize on strong weekends, seize chances at wild-card races, and perhaps benefit from a little luck. This scenario would require a continued pairing of driver aptitude and team performance at Joe Gibbs Racing.
5. Surpassing 70 Wins
While reaching or exceeding 70 wins is theoretically possible, it would demand exceptional circumstances: winning nearly every race where he fields a dominant car, and outperforming at superspeedways and other unpredictable venues. With reduced opportunities at traditionally strong tracks like Richmond, Pocono, or Dover entering the schedule mix, this outcome becomes more challenging but cannot be ruled out for a driver of Hamlin’s caliber.
What the Future Holds for Hamlin and NASCAR
After years of success, Hamlin’s next milestone is his 60th win, a target potentially within reach at the upcoming Bristol Motor Speedway event, where his recent record has been strong. As he continues to appear near the top at key tracks, his pursuit of further victories guarantees excitement for fans and rivals alike.
Hamlin’s final tally, most analysts agree, will likely fall between 65 and 69. This would solidify his legacy as one of NASCAR’s greats, especially if he manages to clinch a championship before retirement. While love or dislike for his style varies among spectators, Hamlin’s run toward the finish of his Cup career is sure to remain a major storyline in the racing world, with Denny Hamlin career win predictions continuing to spark heated debate as his storied career enters its final laps.
