The NASCAR Cup Series Bristol race preview centers on the upcoming Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, a pivotal moment where drivers’ playoff dreams can be made or broken. Scheduled for Saturday, September 13, at the iconic 0.533-mile concrete oval in Tennessee, this event serves as the elimination race for the Round of 16 in the Playoffs, promising high-stakes action under the lights.
The main event kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, broadcast live on USA, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and covers a distance of 266.5 miles (500 laps) with a multi-stage format—Stage 1 ends at Lap 125, Stage 2 at Lap 250, and the Final Stage closes at Lap 500. With a purse exceeding $10.4 million, this race will decide which drivers advance and whose championship aspirations come to an end.
Bristol’s Place in Playoff History and Series Significance
This year marks the 127th Cup Series event at Bristol Motor Speedway and the sixth time the venue has hosted a playoff elimination race for the Round of 16. The short-track configuration and its unique challenges ensure close competition, with the venue’s concrete surface providing its own set of unpredictable elements.
Notably, Bristol’s races have often played host to critical storylines. From 2021 to 2023, three races transformed the layout with a dirt surface, but this September’s contest returns to the traditional oval. In the last nine Cup races at Bristol, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have combined for six victories, showcasing their dominance at the Tennessee track. Each has claimed victory twice in the previous four races held here, reflecting their status among the favorites.
Kyle Larson has been especially formidable, leading an impressive total of 873 laps across the last two Bristol races—setting a record for Hendrick Motorsports and the most laps led over a two-race stretch on a short track since Bobby Allison dominated in the early 1970s. Larson swept both stages and won in each of the last two Bristol contests, underlining his capability to command both pace and track position.
Main Storylines and Performance Trends
Bristol is known for its dramatic moments, but recent events have shown a shift toward more controlled and strategic racing. In April’s race, only three cautions were called—the lowest number since August 1982, while the spring event also witnessed just four lead changes, unheard of since 2008. The pattern continued last September with only 36 caution laps, the fewest since 1984.
High attrition used to define Bristol, but two of the last three races concluded with no drivers eliminated due to accidents, marking a stark contrast to the 78 previous races dating back to 1983 that each saw at least one driver fail to finish after a crash. Moreover, the last 17 Bristol events have avoided overtime finishes, with the most recent coming in April 2015.
Stage sweeping is becoming routine at Bristol, with the last four events featuring a driver winning both stages, and Larson stands alone as the only driver to sweep both stages and secure race victory in back-to-back outings. This statistic points to the advantage a dominant car can hold on Bristol’s unique layout.
Track position will be crucial, as the driver who has led the most laps has won six of the last seven races at Bristol. The final green flag runs have been consistently long, highlighted by a caution-free stretch of 235 laps in April—the second longest in Bristol history.
Veteran experience also counts here: each of the last 23 races has been won by someone with at least 200 Cup Series starts, suggesting that playoff pressure and the tricky Bristol track surface reward those with ample time behind the wheel.
Spotlight on Key Drivers and Teams
Kyle Larson’s record at Bristol is unmatched among current drivers, having finished in the top 10 in 11 of his past 12 appearances and earning top-five finishes in all six starts at Bristol with Hendrick Motorsports. Denny Hamlin continues to demonstrate his prowess, adding four wins—three in just the last nine races—and recently becoming the fifth-oldest driver in series history to win from the pole.
With Hendrick Motorsports backing, drivers have led over 41% of all laps on Bristol’s circuit in the Next Gen car era, and most of those came courtesy of Larson in the last two events. His teammate Alex Bowman claimed the pole position in both recent Bristol races, underscoring the team’s speed on short tracks. Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing, buoyed by Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, has enjoyed playoff success, winning the opening two races of the playoffs five times.
Other standouts include Kyle Busch, with eight Bristol wins—ranked fifth all-time—but recent results have seen him struggle, finishing 14th or worse in the last six events. Bubba Wallace is hitting his stride with 343 laps led this season, and Ty Gibbs has found Bristol one of his strongest tracks for leading laps, particularly in the last four races.
Experience and persistence often pay off at Bristol, as six drivers have ended winless streaks of 50 races or more here—a record for a short-track venue. Ryan Blaney showcases consistency on similar tracks, finishing 11th or better in the last nine short-track events and collecting two wins in that span. Collectively, five drivers—Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Austin Dillon—have accounted for the last 13 short-track victories on the Cup circuit.
Night racing holds its own set of variables; Christopher Bell, following a run of nine straight top-six finishes in night races, has yet to finish in the top 10 in such settings in 2025. Conversely, Erik Jones has notched four of his five top-10 runs this year during night competitions. Legacy Motor Club, although not in the playoff hunt, has managed the best non-playoff driver finish in both prior playoff races, showing that surprises remain possible.
Points Scenarios and Playoff Math Ahead of Elimination
Entering the Bristol elimination race, Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have already secured their spots in the field of 12 for the next playoff round, removing pressure and letting others focus on the cutline drama. The points scenarios are layered and dependent on both race results and stage performances throughout the night.
If a previous playoff winner, or a competitor unable to move forward, captures the victory, drivers like Kyle Larson (who clinches regardless of his finish), Bubba Wallace (who needs 7 points), and Ryan Blaney (who requires 15 points) have outlined objectives to lock in advancement. For William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Austin Cindric, the range needed varies from 18 to 46 points, depending on where they rank and who wins.
A new winner from the crop of those below the current cutline, such as Austin Dillon or another lower-ranked eligible contender, tweaks the math for many hopefuls further. This change means Larson would need 8 points, Wallace 18, and others correspondingly higher totals to be safe. For Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry, advancement is only possible with substantial help from how the race unfolds for others.
The margin this year is notable; the bubble currently sits at 11 points above the cutline—the largest ever entering a final Round of 16 race. Historically, the margin to move on has been five points or fewer in six of the last eight seasons under stage racing rules. Still, no driver in the stage era has ever emerged from below the cutline in the final Round of 16 race to advance through a win, and at least one competitor above the cutline at this point has failed to advance each of the past four seasons.
Shane van Gisbergen, entering the race 16 points above the cutline, faces the possibility of missing advancement despite the largest initial cushion if the numbers fall against him—something never before seen under the current playoff framework. Past performances show that even being 14 points above the line (as Ryan Newman was in 2019) can still result in elimination.
Historic Performances and Noteworthy Records
Bristol’s allure is magnified by its rich history of drama and statistical anomalies. The powerful runs by legendary names like Bobby Allison, who set the precedent for leading laps here, and pioneers such as Mark Martin, Bill Elliott, Lee Petty, Geoff Bodine, Cale Yarborough, and Rusty Wallace contribute a sense of legacy to each event—many of whom are referenced in records and achievements still standing today.
Kyle Larson’s success echoes those from decades past, showing how consistent excellence and adaptability on short tracks remain critical. No driver failed to finish due to an accident in two of the last three races—a dramatic shift from the earlier years of notorious Bristol attrition. Each of the last 23 Bristol winners has logged more than 200 Cup Series starts, emphasizing the importance of experience in navigating this unique and often tumultuous circuit.
Team performance also plays a significant role, with Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing frequently shaping the top of the leaderboard. The Next Gen era has seen Hendrick’s portfolio expand, with the majority of their laps led at Bristol coming in recent years—particularly through Larson’s dominant performances.
Qualifying, Scheduling, and Weekend Programming
The action-packed weekend at Bristol encompasses more than just the Cup Series showdown. Thursday’s schedule includes the NCTS Practice and Kennametal Pole Qualifying, as well as the ARCA Bush’s Beans 200 and the NCTS UNOH 250, with all events available across FS2, FS1, NRN, and SiriusXM airwaves. Friday’s programming features NXS Practice and Pole Qualifying, the NCS Practice and Busch Light Pole Qualifying sessions, and the NXS Food City 300 race, aired on The CW, PRN, and SiriusXM.
Saturday brings the main event: the Bass Pro Shops Night Race for the Cup Series, with coverage commencing at 7:30 p.m. ET. Fans can tune in via FS1, PRN, and SiriusXM to catch the championship drama as it unfolds on one of NASCAR’s most demanding arenas.
For teams and drivers alike, pole position has proven an advantage—Alex Bowman seeks a third consecutive pole at the track, chasing a feat last achieved by Rusty Wallace in the late 1990s. Recent races have also noted an uptick in pole-winning race finishes and late-stage stage sweeps, marking the importance of running up front in every segment of the event.
Looking Ahead: What’s at Stake in Bristol’s Playoff Showdown
The NASCAR Cup Series Bristol race preview sets the stage for one of the most consequential contests of the season. With several of the sport’s top names—including Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Ross Chastain—still fighting to secure their playoff survival, the stakes could not be higher for those at risk of elimination. Add the threat of surprise moves from talented underdogs like Austin Dillon and Shane van Gisbergen, and fans can anticipate strategy, emotion, and the razor-thin margins that have come to define Bristol in the playoff era.
The tension encapsulates the uncertainty of the neutral, subdued tone surrounding the event, with several possible permutations defining who continues their quest for the Cup and whose journey ends on Saturday night. As the curtain rises for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, the promise of historic moments and nascent narratives remains alive, underscoring why Bristol Motor Speedway continues to serve as a crucible where NASCAR’s finest rise—or fall—amid the pressure cooker of elimination playoffs.
