The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship comes down to an intense showdown at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday, November 2. As Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson prepare to compete for the title, the Cup Series Championship 2025 promises high drama with each of these racers bringing unique strengths to the finale.
Championship Field: Three Seek Their First, One Eyes a Second Title
This year’s Championship 4 is notable for featuring only one previous Cup Series champion—Kyle Larson, who claimed the title in 2021. Briscoe, Byron, and Hamlin are all in search of their first-ever series championship, giving the 2025 championship a 75% likelihood of crowning a brand new winner. Larson stands out as the sole contender to enter the Championship 4 on points rather than through a victory in the Round of 8, but his recent seasons have not matched his dominant 2021 run.
Victories Define the Season: 15 Combined Wins Among Contenders
While the playoff points system values consistency, securing victories remains a pivotal part of Cup Series success. Denny Hamlin leads this elite group with six wins, including a key victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, marking his 60th career Cup win. William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Chase Briscoe have each added three wins, tying them for fourth-most this year alongside Ryan Blaney. Shane van Gisbergen sits just behind Hamlin with five wins, and Christopher Bell follows with four.
History shows that winning at Phoenix is crucial for capturing the championship. Since the playoff system’s inception, the driver who wins the final race at Phoenix almost always emerges as champion—Ross Chastain’s victory in 2023 was the only exception, as Ryan Blaney clinched the title with a runner-up result.
Denny Hamlin’s Fifth Attempt: Chasing That Elusive Cup
Denny Hamlin is making his fifth appearance among the Championship 4 under the current system—a testament to both his skill and heartbreak. Hamlin, frequently thought of as one of the Cup Series’ finest without a championship to his name, participated in the inaugural Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2014 but finished seventh in the race and third in the standings. He returned to the final four consecutively from 2019 to 2021. Notably, in 2019, a pit crew miscalculation cost him dearly, overheating his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and paving the way for then-teammate Kyle Busch’s success. During 2020 and 2021, despite strong seasons, Hamlin came up short—including a third-place finish in 2021, when Larson dominated the race. After enduring three consecutive Round of 8 eliminations, Hamlin again has a chance to finally seize the elusive Bill France Cup at Phoenix.
Chase Briscoe’s Qualifying Prowess Puts Him in the Spotlight
This season, Chase Briscoe’s qualifying successes have shone brightly, with seven poles—the most by any driver in a single season since Kyle Busch achieved eight in 2017. This performance surpasses all of Briscoe’s earlier years, as he only accumulated two poles during his stint at Stewart-Haas Racing. The drastic improvement speaks to the synergy between Briscoe, his No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota crew, and crew chief James Small, who have consistently delivered a well-tuned car for qualifying sessions. As recent races have shown, solid qualifying and track position remain more critical than ever, and capturing an eighth pole could provide Briscoe with the springboard needed for championship glory.
Kyle Larson’s Tale of Two Halves: Searching for Second Glory
The story of Kyle Larson’s 2025 campaign is a study in contrast. Early in the season, over the first 12 races, Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 team maintained a top-10 average finish, notching all three of his season victories in that burst—culminating with a triumph at the Kansas Speedway spring race. However, during the final 23 races, Larson’s performance dipped markedly, with an average finish dropping to 15.4 and seven results outside the top 20, compared to just two in the prior stretch. In spite of these challenges, a recent surge that includes three top-five finishes across the last four events shows that Larson may be peaking once again at the perfect moment. The question remains: can he deliver another Phoenix masterclass and become a two-time champion?
William Byron Sets the Pace as Laps Led Leader
Leading laps is always a key indicator of strength in NASCAR, and William Byron has set a new personal and series benchmark in 2025, leading 1,278 laps—surpassing his previous season best of 1,016 set in 2023. Behind the wheel of the No. 24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, Byron has followed up consecutive third-place finishes in the points from 2023 and 2024 by leading more races than any other Cup Series driver this year. The big test remains: can Byron convert impressive speed and consistency into a first Cup Series Championship this Sunday?
Track Record at Phoenix Could Prove Decisive
The history of the Championship 4 drivers at Phoenix Raceway, where the Cup Series Championship 2025 will be settled, is noteworthy. In total, Briscoe, Byron, Hamlin, and Larson have collected five victories at the Arizona circuit. Hamlin leads with two wins, though both came before the introduction of the Next Gen car, in 2012 and 2019. Briscoe broke through at Phoenix for his first Cup Series win in 2022, Byron triumphed in the 2023 spring race, and Larson’s Phoenix success was sealed with his 2021 championship triumph. Track position, recent form, and adaptability to the modern era’s machinery will shape the title battle among these contenders.
What Awaits on Race Day and Future Implications
The Cup Series Championship 2025 will be decided this Sunday, November 2, with engines roaring at 3 p.m. ET at Phoenix Raceway. The race will be broadcast live on NBC, drawing in NASCAR fans from across the nation to witness whether Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, or Kyle Larson will emerge atop the mountain. Each contender brings compelling storylines, from Hamlin’s persistent pursuit to Byron’s breakthrough season and Larson’s potential resurgence. The outcome will not only determine the next champion but also shape legacies within NASCAR’s fiercely competitive landscape, ensuring high stakes and unforgettable moments in the desert.
