This weekend, anticipation is high as the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Phoenix, where the next champion will be decided among the four remaining playoff drivers. The battle for the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion title has centered on favorites Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier, while Jesse Love and Carson Kvapil look to pull off upsets at the most crucial race of the year.
Favorites Emerge in the 2025 Championship Race
As the field narrows, much of the attention has landed on Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier. Allgaier, aiming for consecutive titles, brings championship experience and consistency, while Zilisch, in his rookie season, has delivered a record-breaking campaign by capturing 10 wins and surpassing high expectations. The storylines leading into Phoenix set the stage for a dramatic conclusion.
Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, respected voices from The Athletic, have weighed in with their championship predictions. Each finalist—Justin Allgaier, Connor Zilisch, Jesse Love, and Carson Kvapil—has showcased remarkable talent and determination throughout the season, with any of them potentially claiming the title in Phoenix. However, the consensus among insiders leans toward the two most dominant competitors this year.
Insiders Predict a Tight Showdown
“Well, I’m going to be picking Justin Allgaier. … I just think Phoenix there and obviously his championship experience,”
said Jeff Gluck, co-host of The Teardown podcast.
“Look, I mean, it’s three JRM cars, so.”
—Jeff Gluck, NASCAR journalist
“The wins discrepancy is the wins. That’s 10 to 3 for wins,”
added Jordan Bianchi, referencing Zilisch’s season record. Bianchi went on,
“But Allgaier is in the ballpark for top-fives for top-10s. He’s only led 13 fewer laps this year than Zilisch. … Zilisch is phenomenal, but Allgaier’s been really, really good this year. Really, really good. And he’s got a lot of confidence there, and it’s Phoenix, right? So, it’s a thing. And the one thing that I think you need to be careful of, and I talked about Heim maintaining control of the race.”
—Jordan Bianchi, NASCAR reporter
Bianchi further cautioned about the unpredictability of Phoenix, stating,
“We saw a little bit of this with Zilisch in this race on Saturday, and really here in the Spring as well. He gets back in traffic a little bit, things can happen, and you can completely become a victim of things in your surroundings, and that’s dangerous. So, we’ll see how this plays out. I guess I’ve kinda been on the Allgaier’s gonna win it, so I’m going to go with you, and I agree with you. But I think it’s going to be a showdown between these two JRM guys.”
—Jordan Bianchi, NASCAR reporter
Comparing the Top Contenders’ Seasons
Despite the difference in total victories—Zilisch boasts 10 wins to Allgaier’s 3—the two have performed at a similar level when it comes to consistency. Allgaier has maintained strong results in both top-five and top-ten finishes throughout 2025 and closely trails Zilisch in total laps led. His confidence at Phoenix and proven capability under pressure make him a strong favorite, as highlighted by the experts.
Connor Zilisch, on the other hand, has fulfilled the high hopes set for his rookie year. However, his limited Phoenix experience—just two prior races with finishes of P4 and P16—leaves questions about how he’ll handle the championship atmosphere on this unique track. NASCAR insiders emphasize that in Phoenix, track position and navigating through traffic are crucial, as unexpected incidents can have a major influence, particularly for less experienced drivers.
The Road to the Final Showdown
With so many factors at play, the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion fight promises high drama. Justin Allgaier’s combination of experience, consistency, and recent momentum gives him a significant edge according to many observers. Yet, Connor Zilisch’s dominant season cannot be ignored, setting up a compelling contest between two JR Motorsports teammates, while underdogs Jesse Love and Carson Kvapil hope to capitalize should the favorites falter.
The outcome at Phoenix will determine if Zilisch caps off a remarkable rookie season with a title, or if Allgaier makes history as a back-to-back champion, further cementing his legacy. As fans await the championship-deciding race, the next 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion is set to emerge from one of the most closely watched finales in recent memory.
