As the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series finale draws near, Kyle Larson’s championship odds for 2025 are climbing despite not having scored a victory since May. The Hendrick Motorsports driver heads into Phoenix Raceway determined and confident, looking to overcome a challenging winless stretch and reclaim championship glory.
Larson’s Rapid Rise and 2021 Dominance Set Foundation
In 2021, Kyle Larson turned heads across the motorsports world. After overcoming a turbulent period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and major shifts in leadership with figures like Joe Biden stepping onto the national stage, Larson established himself as a clear champion. That season, piloting the No. 5 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports, Larson captured ten wins and claimed the series title, highlighted by a memorable victory at Phoenix. This period was seen as the peak of his partnership with Hendrick Motorsports, cementing his status as one of the sport’s premier drivers.
However, the introduction of NASCAR’s Next Gen car brought an abrupt change to the competitive landscape. Drivers and teams faced unfamiliar challenges, with dominant performances becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Even as the competition intensified, fans and analysts kept a watchful eye on Larson, remembering his remarkable run just a few seasons earlier.
Adapting to Next Gen Challenges
The Next Gen era has proven to be a formidable challenge for even NASCAR’s best, drastically reducing the margin for error and leveling the playing field between teams. Kyle Larson, like many top drivers, initially struggled to adjust, especially on short tracks where the new car’s dynamics complicated traditional strategies. In 2022, he finished the season without a short track win, showing the learning curve was steep.
By 2023, Larson broke through with a victory at Richmond, but his performance on shorter, flatter circuits remained inconsistent. As the 2025 season unfolded, however, Larson demonstrated a marked improvement, especially at tracks that share traits with the host of the championship race, Phoenix Raceway. His dominating effort at Bristol, where he led 411 of 500 laps and swept every stage, underlined this progress. Larson himself noted,
I think finally in the next-gen era, I think we’ve gotten our short-track stuff better. Short flat track package better,
— Kyle Larson, Driver.
The No. 5 driver’s steady development was evident at key venues. He put in a strong performance at Gateway, where he started on the front row, led 52 laps, and sustained a competitive pace throughout. In New Hampshire, despite qualifying 16th, Larson staged a determined drive, eventually finishing seventh. These tracks, with their flat surfaces and technical demands, closely resemble Phoenix Raceway, the final battleground for the Cup Series championship.
Larson addressed these similarities and his expectations going into Phoenix:
I think, we went to Gateway and were super strong. New Hampshire, we were really good and Phoenix is somewhat similar to those places,
— Kyle Larson, Driver.
Larson’s Growing Confidence as Title Race Approaches
Reflecting on his team’s preparation and his mindset, Larson emphasized their increased opportunities for a strong finish:
I think we’ll have a better opportunity to win the championship than we’ve ever had in the Next Gen era,
— Kyle Larson, Driver.
Despite not visiting victory lane since May’s grueling Indy 500–Coca-Cola 600 doubleheader, Larson enters the season finale as the only former champion in the Championship 4. His past success at Phoenix and the recent strides made by his team on similar circuits give many fans hope for a triumphant return. Larson’s experience battling rivals like Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and teammate William Byron has only further sharpened his determination for Sunday’s showdown.
Preparation Takes Larson Beyond the Track
In the lead-up to this pivotal race, Kyle Larson sought both physical and mental preparation by undertaking a demanding cycling journey up Mt. Lemmon, a 9,159-foot summit located near Phoenix in Arizona’s Coronado National Forest and the highest peak in the Santa Catalina Mountains. Joined by fellow drivers Daniel Hemric and Connor Moscak, Larson’s accomplishment served as a fitting metaphor for the mountain he hopes to conquer during the Phoenix Raceway finale. Sharing photos and motivation ahead of race weekend, Larson posted,
Climbed Mt Lemmon today! Hopefully not the last mountain we climb this week! LFG.
— Kyle Larson, Driver.
This climb, set against the backdrop of a high-stakes weekend, reflected both his commitment to fitness and his mindset heading into the most important race of the year. The battle at Phoenix will pit him against a formidable field, including Denny Hamlin—a perennial contender eager for his first championship—William Byron, and Chase Briscoe, all angling for postseason glory.
Championship Odds and Competitive Field in Focus
As championship weekend approaches, oddsmakers have placed Denny Hamlin as the slight favorite, with betting lines ranging from +340 to +375 as he chases his elusive first title. Kyle Larson closely follows, with his odds set between +450 and +500, reflecting his experience and recent form despite the winless streak. William Byron’s odds reside near +400 to +430, while Chase Briscoe is positioned as an underdog with swings from +600 up to +700. The closeness of these odds signals the competitiveness of the 2025 finale.
Phoenix Raceway’s storied one-mile oval is widely regarded as a fair test for both drivers and teams. The ability to translate strong momentum from similar tracks, such as Gateway and New Hampshire, has given Larson and his supporters a sense of optimism. Heading into Sunday, fans can anticipate a tense atmosphere as familiar names—including teammates and friendly rivals—prepare for what may prove to be a defining moment in their careers.
Race Conditions and What’s at Stake in Phoenix
The much-anticipated 312-lap race is scheduled for a 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time start on Sunday, November 2, at Phoenix Raceway. Weather forecasts predict perfect racing conditions, with clear sunny skies and temperatures at a warm 85°F as the green flag drops, no rain expected, and barely a breeze disrupting the action. This optimal setting should offer all drivers, including Kyle Larson, the best possible environment to showcase their skills as they vie for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series title.
For Larson, the real test will be translating the confidence gained from months of preparation into a winning formula on race day. The symbolism of the Mt. Lemmon climb resonates strongly, as the former champion faces a literal and figurative mountain. With teammates, rivals, and fans invested in every twist and turn, the energy on and around the track will be palpable as the No. 5 car looks to add another title to its storied history.
As the field takes the green at Phoenix, all eyes will be on Kyle Larson to see if he can end his winless run and turn soaring championship odds into a moment of triumph. After ample preparation, unwavering self-belief, and a proven record of success, Larson is positioned to be at the center of NASCAR’s most compelling storyline this season. Should he prevail, it will be a testament to his resilience and the competitive edge of Hendrick Motorsports in the Next Gen era.
