Everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes the pressure to win. With the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series race weekend underway at Texas Motor Speedway, the field is packed with strong teams, top talent, and one unexpected name on the front row. A familiar race is gaining new meaning, and past winners now face a fresh challenge. The fight for victory could come down to experience, momentum, or one bold move in the closing laps
Texas Motor Speedway: A Lone Star Legacy
Since its grand opening in 1997, Texas Motor Speedway (TMS) has stood as one of the crown jewels of American motorsports. Conceived in the mid-1990s by Bruton Smith and Eddie Gossage, the 1.5-mile, D-shaped oval was designed to blend the best features of Smith’s other tracks, with high-banked turns (24 degrees for stock cars) and a sprawling infield that could host thousands of fans. The facility quickly became one of the largest sports venues in the United States, with seating for over 150,000 and a reputation for spectacle both on and off the track.
TMS has seen its share of drama and controversy. Early on, the track experimented with dual banking to accommodate both NASCAR and open-wheel racing, though this idea was soon abandoned in favor of a more conventional layout. The venue’s signature cowboy flair-complete with a trophy topped by a Stetson hat and the tradition of the winner firing six-shooters in Victory Lane-cements its place as a uniquely Texan stop on the NASCAR calendar. While the racing product has sometimes drawn criticism for being processional in recent years, the track’s place in NASCAR lore is secure, having hosted countless memorable moments and some of the sport’s most iconic drivers.
The Würth 400: A Modern Classic in the Making
The Würth 400, currently the only NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway, is a relatively recent addition to the schedule, but it’s quickly carved out a niche of its own. First run in 2005-originally under the banner of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400-the event filled a void left by the controversial Ferko lawsuit, which forced NASCAR to reshuffle its major race dates and led to the demise of the Southern 500’s original Labor Day slot. Since then, the Würth 400 has become a springtime staple, though it has sometimes shifted dates, with the 2024 race notably moving back to April after several years as an autumn playoff fixture.
The race has seen a parade of champions grace Victory Lane. Jimmie Johnson remains the event’s undisputed king, notching five wins between 2007 and 2015. Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick each have three wins, while a host of others-including Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin-have also tasted Texas glory. Hendrick Motorsports leads all teams with eight victories, and Chevrolet has dominated the manufacturer wars with 11 wins to date. The event has also become known for its unpredictability, with overtime finishes, rain delays, and even midweek conclusions (as in 2020) adding to the lore.
The Würth 400’s identity is still evolving, but it has already delivered its share of drama and established itself as a race that every Cup driver wants to win-if only for the chance to don the black cowboy hat and fire those famous six-shooters in the Texas sunset.
Who Will Tame Texas in 2025? Five Favorites and a Pole Surprise
As the green flag prepares to drop on the 2025 Würth 400, the field is stacked with both proven Texas winners and hungry young guns. History suggests that drivers from Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Stewart-Haas Racing are the ones to watch-these three teams have combined to win 15 of the last 16 races at TMS. Here are five favorites to watch, based on past Texas success, current form, and team strength:
- Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports): Larson is always a threat at 1.5-mile tracks and claimed victory here in 2021. He enters as one of the betting favorites, thanks to Hendrick’s recent dominance and his own ability to adapt to changing track conditions.
- William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports): Byron won the 2023 edition of this race and nearly snatched the pole for Sunday, missing out by just 0.014 seconds. With Hendrick power and momentum on his side, Byron could easily add another cowboy hat to his collection.
- Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing): A three-time Texas winner (2010, 2019, and a sweep in 2010), Hamlin’s experience and knack for long green-flag runs make him a perennial contender at TMS.
- Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports): The defending winner, Elliott broke through in 2024 for his first Texas triumph. His consistency and recent form suggest he could go back-to-back-a feat rarely accomplished at this track.
- Kyle Busch (Richard Childress Racing): Busch boasts four Texas wins (2013, 2016, 2018, and 2020) and remains one of the sport’s most versatile drivers. If his car is dialed in, he’s always a threat to steal the show in the closing laps.
While these five drivers represent the best blend of history and current momentum, several others deserve mention. Tyler Reddick (2022 winner), Austin Dillon (2020 winner), and Joey Logano (2014 winner) all have the pedigree to surprise. And don’t overlook the likes of Alex Bowman or Ty Gibbs, who have shown flashes of speed and could break through with the right strategy.
The Pole Winner: Carson Hocevar’s Big Moment
Adding an extra wrinkle to Sunday’s race is the presence of a new face at the front: Carson Hocevar. The 22-year-old Spire Motorsports driver shocked the field by capturing his first career Busch Light Pole Award, setting the second-fastest lap in the Gen 7 era and outpacing Byron by a razor-thin margin. Hocevar, decked out in a cowboy-themed firesuit and black hat, became the youngest-ever pole winner at Texas and entered Sunday’s race with nothing to lose and everything to prove.
While pole winners at Texas don’t always convert their starting spot into victory, track position remains crucial-especially in the early going. Hocevar’s raw speed and newfound confidence could make him a dark horse, particularly if the race unfolds with long green-flag runs or late-race restarts.
As he put it after qualifying, “Having the cowboy outfit-what better place to be on the pole. I’m normally so hard on myself, and I didn’t think I nailed that lap at all, but I’m super proud of this team”. If Hocevar can keep his composure and avoid rookie mistakes, he might just ride off with the biggest win of his young career.
News in Brief: Texas Motor Speedway Victory Predictions
Texas Motor Speedway remains a legendary battleground in the NASCAR Cup Series, mixing tradition with unpredictability. The 2025 Würth 400 brings together past champions like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson, along with rising stars such as Carson Hocevar, who earned his first pole. With top teams like Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing leading the charge, this year’s race promises intense competition. Every lap matters at this high-speed oval, where history and speed collide under the Texas sun.
ALSO READ: Würth 400 Qualifying Order: Full Driver List Revealed as NASCAR’s Top Guns Prepare for Race
