The NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12 begins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, placing the spotlight on drivers who may not be obvious favorites as they vie for supremacy. This high-stakes event creates an opportunity for contenders such as Kyle Larson to challenge expectations and shake up the playoff field, with the Kyle Larson New Hampshire playoff scenario drawing particular fan attention.
This weekend’s Mobil 1 301 will see playoff drivers take on the 1.058-mile flat track, using tire compounds proven to create challenging, unpredictable conditions similar to those at Bowman Gray Stadium and Martinsville Speedway. With fresh strategies required for tire management, teams are preparing for an intense battle where the unexpected is not just possible—but likely. Here are three drivers who could break away from the pack and make a significant postseason impact.
Kyle Larson: Hendrick Motorsports Ready for a Breakthrough
Although recognized as a top-level short-track racer, Kyle Larson has yet to secure a win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, often considered a short track due to its single-mile length. In previous years, while driving the #42 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing, Larson tallied three runner-up finishes, indicating his potential strength at this venue. Now representing Hendrick Motorsports, Larson benefits from enhanced equipment and organizational support, factors that could help him finally claim the elusive victory. His recent performances have reinforced his consistency, as he transformed two starts outside the top 10 into impressive top-five results. Entering the New Hampshire playoff weekend, the focus is squarely on whether Larson and his team will convert their speed into a decisive win.
Ross Chastain: The Sleeper from Trackhouse Racing
Ross Chastain, piloting the #1 Chevrolet for Trackhouse Racing, has not enjoyed prominent finishes at New Hampshire in past seasons, causing many to overlook his chances during this playoff round. Despite not being commonly named among the favorites, Chastain’s recent success at comparable tracks suggests he could be a threat. He logged a victory at Phoenix Raceway in 2023 and secured several top-five placements at Richmond Raceway in the Next Gen car. Sitting below the playoff cutline, Chastain is on the offensive, needing a strong result to continue his postseason fight. These circumstances position him as an ideal dark horse, with the potential to surprise both fans and competitors by battling up front at the storied Loudon oval.
Tyler Reddick: 23XI Racing’s Underdog Potential
After opening the playoffs with a second-place finish at Darlington Raceway, Tyler Reddick has struggled to recapture that early momentum in subsequent races. Yet, given Toyota’s impressive recent record at New Hampshire, Reddick remains a driver to watch. Joe Gibbs Racing, another Toyota organization, has secured every Next Gen era win on the 1.058-mile track, with Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. delivering reliable results for the manufacturer. Reddick, piloting the #45 entry for 23XI Racing, has finished sixth twice in a row at New Hampshire in his current role, evidence of both his speed and steady hands at this challenging venue. Fellow Toyota teammate Bubba Wallace has also demonstrated strong form at New Hampshire, positioning 23XI Racing as a team with multiple dark horse possibilities entering this critical playoff round.
Significance and Playoff Implications for Surprising Contenders
With the playoff picture wide open, unpredictable outcomes at New Hampshire could radically reshape the Round of 12 standings. While established legends are expected to defend their turf, drivers like Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick have the resources, historical form, and urgency to contend for a breakout victory. Their performances will not only influence advancement to later playoff rounds, but also set the tone for which teams capitalize on early momentum. Fans and teams alike will monitor these dark horse contenders closely, anticipating whether New Hampshire’s unique challenges will yield a new story in the ever-dramatic NASCAR playoffs.
