Hendrick Motorsports looks to extend its trademark Martinsville Speedway dominance during Sunday’s Xfinity 500, a race pivotal to the organization’s championship hopes and a key highlight for fans focused on Hendrick Motorsports Martinsville success. With a 0.526-mile short track set in Martinsville, Virginia, the Cup Series Playoffs hit their critical Round of 8 cutoff where only four of the eight remaining drivers will advance to the championship decider at Phoenix Raceway next month.
William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson represent Hendrick in this playoff faceoff, but after Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe secured their advancement with recent wins, just two spots remain for six hungry contenders. Sunday’s 500-lap event puts intense pressure not only on the athletes but also on their crews and leadership. Every lap at Martinsville counts, and every strategy decision shapes careers and futures.
Hendrick Motorsports’ History at Martinsville Sets High Expectations
Throughout the years, Martinsville Speedway has been a bastion for Hendrick Motorsports, where each of its current Cup Series drivers has earned at least one win. Securing another victory this weekend would bring the team’s Martinsville win tally to a remarkable 30, reaffirming its stature as the Cup Series’ all-time leader in victories at the Virginia short track.
Yet, more than historic pride is on the line. This weekend’s race means everything for three of Hendrick’s playoff hopefuls. The team has placed a driver in the coveted Championship 4 every season since 2020, but with the current playoff scenario, that streak faces real jeopardy. Statistical analyses from Racing Insights position Kyle Larson with the strongest chance to advance, but William Byron and Chase Elliott both face uphill battles following recent tough breaks.
The Stakes: Who Advances and Who Goes Home?
Sunday’s Xfinity 500 is the final chance for playoff drivers to secure their place in the Cup Series’ climactic battle in Phoenix. Kyle Larson, having qualified third and holding a plus-36 points margin over the provisional cutoff, enjoys the best odds of the three Hendrick contenders. His track record at Martinsville includes a remarkable average finish of 3.2 across his last six starts—every one of them a top-six effort for the No. 5 Chevrolet.
Larson’s standing, however, is precarious, sitting just one point shy of championship rival Christopher Bell. Both must fend off competitors lurking just below the playoff cut. Each of the drivers beneath that line—Chase Elliott among them—has been to Martinsville’s victory lane before, adding volatility and suspense to the race’s likely outcome.
Chase Elliott’s playoff journey suffered a blow with a last-place finish at Talladega, sinking him to 62 points below the cutoff and making a win on Sunday an absolute necessity. His previous success at Martinsville, notably his springboard victory toward his 2020 championship title, offers a glimmer of hope. Crew chief Alan Gustafson captured the team’s persistent outlook despite recent adversity:
“Things haven’t really gone the way that we want them to, and it’s easy to feel sorry for yourself,”
said Alan Gustafson, No. 9 crew chief.
“But that just doesn’t do any good. There’s no real value in that. So I think everybody understands that, and I can speak for myself and how I try to influence a team, but I think you still have a lot of opportunity, right? I mean, we’ve got a lot of opportunity to come in here and race for a win, and it’s best to spend that effort focusing on that. And I’m excited to be able to do it.”
Elliott’s results at Martinsville have recently been highly encouraging. He topped Saturday’s practice and has posted three straight top-four finishes here, collecting more points than any other driver in that span.
William Byron’s playoff momentum, on the other hand, faltered after a crash in Las Vegas and a last-lap incident at Talladega. These setbacks place him 36 points below the cutoff entering Martinsville. Still, Byron boasts two wins in the last seven races at this speedway and will take the green flag from pole position—a potential advantage if he can reverse recent playoff struggles. Should the No. 24 Chevrolet regain its form quickly, Byron could make the Championship 4 for a third consecutive season.
Recent Trends: Hendrick, JGR, and Team Penske Battle for Martinsville Supremacy
In the last 14 outings at Martinsville, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing each claim five wins, while Team Penske has secured four, including Ryan Blaney’s commanding victories in the fall event. The competition has grown fiercer, with Toyota and Ford teams closing the gap to Chevrolet’s longstanding stronghold.
All three Hendrick playoff drivers faced adversity last weekend at Talladega: Byron’s late spin, Larson’s final-lap fuel scare, and Elliott’s first-stage crash have all contributed to playoff uncertainty. Despite the obstacles, racing insiders still view Hendrick’s presence as a potent threat at a venue where the organization holds deep roots.
Behind the Wall: Tire and Setup Challenges Await Teams and Crew Chiefs
Crew chiefs across the Cup Series, from Alan Gustafson to Rudy Fugle and Adam Stevens, have their hands full preparing for a race that combines length, strategic options, and the introduction of a new, softer Goodyear left-side tire. That compound, designed after feedback from a Goodyear test at New Hampshire Motor Speedway earlier this season, will see its Martinsville debut in cooler conditions, ratcheting up the importance of tire wear, track adaptation, and pit strategy.
The track’s traditional spring race sees 400 laps; this fall’s event stretches to 500, with each stage ending later than before. Extended runs, unpredictable tire degradation, and fluctuating grip levels present variables few can control. Crew chief Rudy Fugle succinctly noted the consistency in challenge over many years:
“Yeah, I think that’s been the same way for as long as I’ve been going there,”
said Rudy Fugle, crew chief for William Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet.
James Small, Chase Briscoe’s crew chief on the No. 19 Toyota, also considered the unknowns:
“It’s more just a wait and see, and we’ll see what the track temps are like and how it behaves when it rubbers in,”
said James Small.
“But obviously, same construction as what we’ve been using, but just slightly softer compound. I know the guys that did the Loudon Goodyear tire test, including (teammate) Christopher (Bell), they got a run on these tires. So we have some general feedback on how it compared to what we previously raced. So yeah, not expecting a huge amount of difference, just maybe a little more wear and falloff.”
Preparing for tire management and understanding wear through limited practice has become paramount. Adam Stevens, crew chief for Christopher Bell’s No. 20 Toyota, pointed out: It certainly does, said Adam Stevens, crew chief for Bell’s No. 20 Toyota,
“and then you factor in that new tire combination with the softer left side, you would think that they’re going to wear out quicker, and them wearing out quicker and then having longer runs, if you don’t have an opportunity in practice to run out the full 25 minutes and see how it really behaves, because maybe you need an adjustment or maybe the caution comes out because of some other reason, and you just can’t have a full understanding of that, chances are you’re going to acquire a full understanding of that when the race starts.”
He elaborated on the unpredictability with a practical example:
“We’ve seen in the past there, gosh, I can’t remember what year it was where I want to say one of the Penske cars started on the pole. This was not this era of car but the previous car, and we had some kind of tire change, and they got lapped on the first run. I think everybody was surprised at the degradation and the wear, and the track didn’t take rubber, and once the race started, you didn’t have a lot of tools to work on it, and certainly didn’t have any tools until the caution came out, and it really puts you in hang-on mode. That is a distinct possibility at Martinsville, especially with the temps that we’re going to have and a little bit of unknown with the new tire. So you hope that you unload close and you hope you have an opportunity to go out there and put 60 or 70 laps on your tires in practice and really develop some kind of understanding of what you’re really up against.”
Pit Position and Pole Myths: Recent History Re-examined
For teams hoping to convert a top starting spot into a Martinsville win, trends have turned surprisingly elusive. Pole winners and holders of coveted pit stall No. 1 have not parlayed that advantage into victory in the last 24 races at the venue. The previous driver to triumph from the pole was Jimmie Johnson in 2013, when he dominated by leading 346 of 500 laps. For William Byron, who starts first on Sunday, the challenge remains: break the streak and add to Hendrick’s Martinsville legend.
Spotlight Outside the Playoff Bubble: Bubba Wallace Could Play Spoiler
Though the playoff focus remains on the eight championship-eligible drivers, Bubba Wallace’s recent performances have turned heads. The 23XI Racing veteran, previously eliminated from postseason contention, boasts top-10 finishes in four of the previous six Martinsville events and was third in the Cup Series’ last appearance at the track. Wallace has also found significant success here in the Craftsman Truck Series, including his first NASCAR national-series win in 2013, and displayed notable pace in the week’s practice session. Should he capitalize on recent speed, he could alter the playoff script for the favorites.
Fantasy Strategy: Key Picks and Practice Standouts
Fantasy players eyeing Martinsville have a challenging task, as the 500-lap marathon brings a blend of attrition, pit strategy, and late-race chaos. Dustin Albino, a NASCAR Fantasy Live expert, recommends prioritizing drivers who showed long-run speed in practice and who are poised for a playoff surge—Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney, with Chase Briscoe reserved in the garage slot. Both Elliott and Larson topped practice in sustained pace over 20- and 25-lap averages, crucial statistics when drivers must manage equipment over the event’s grueling distance.
William Byron’s strong qualifying means he replaces Christopher Bell in some fantasy lineups, particularly since Bell’s team struggled to find the ideal setup. Denny Hamlin, with only one fantasy use left and qualifying struggles of his own this week, is an omission for most, reflecting the razor-thin margins for error on such a tight, tactical circuit.
Sunday’s Race: What to Expect and What’s at Stake
Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway features a race purse approaching $9.8 million, running for 500 laps divided into three stages. The defending winner is Ryan Blaney, who lines up deeper in the field but brings momentum as a past Martinsville champion. Fans can tune in via NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App.
With intensified pressure on William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports’ hopes for Martinsville success rest not only on history and raw speed but also on adaptability, strategy, and perhaps a dose of racing luck. For Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, this weekend represents their opportunity to dethrone NASCAR’s winningest Martinsville outfit and book a trip to Phoenix for the season’s championship showdown.
The broader Cup Series field, from veterans like Jimmie Johnson and Bubba Wallace to strategic minds like Adam Stevens, Rudy Fugle, and James Small, add layers of complexity to a race where the unexpected is often the rule rather than the exception. Each lap will inch contenders closer to playoff immortality or the heartbreak of elimination.
Sunday’s winner will not only take home the iconic Martinsville grandfather clock but may also write a new chapter in the storied rivalry between Chevrolet, Toyota, and Ford, setting the stage for a dramatic finale at Phoenix.
