The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs enter their next high-stakes chapter as the Round of 12 begins this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, with most top contenders still in the mix. Intense competition and manufacturer representation set the stage as drivers battle to remain in championship contention, and the unfolding drama will influence the sport’s final championship lineup.
Championship Favorites and Team Representation in the Round of 12
This year’s NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs have maintained much of last season‘s momentum, with all four members of the previous Championship 4 still vying for the title. Every Cup champion from this decade is competing, underscoring the level of experience and capability within the field. Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports, and Joe Gibbs Racing—representing Ford, Chevrolet, and Toyota, respectively—have each advanced three drivers, reinforcing their positions as the powerhouses of the series. This lineup sets up a compelling contest among top organizations as the elimination round begins at New Hampshire.
Denny Hamlin: Leading the Pack with Consistency
Denny Hamlin enters the Round of 12 as the top seed, driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, which won every race in the Round of 16. Hamlin’s season includes five victories, with a key win at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and a Southern 500 pole position starting off his postseason campaign. He boasts a strong track record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, with three career wins and an average finish just under 10th place, as well as recent top performances at Kansas Speedway.
His dominant form leaves few doubts about his potential to advance, with the main risk stemming from potential errors or mechanical issues within his team. Hamlin’s history of postseason difficulties highlights that mental resilience could be as decisive as race pace during this critical stretch.
William Byron: Searching for Momentum After a Subdued Start
William Byron, another strong competitor, has had a slow playoff start—failing to lead laps or achieve top-10 finishes in the first three races. His biggest show of strength came in August with a win at Iowa Speedway. Despite his slow progress, Byron has made the Championship 4 the past two seasons, showing he can play the long game.
Byron’s 2025 campaign, however, seems disconnected compared to previous years, with only two wins so far. His record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a concern, as he has yet to finish inside the top ten in seven races on the track. The next challenge for Byron may be the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, where he could be vulnerable to elimination unless his form improves significantly.
Kyle Larson: Early Season Prowess Tempered by Midyear Slump
Kyle Larson’s trajectory mirrors Byron’s, with recent performances raising questions about his playoff outlook. After a disappointing 32nd-place showing at Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where he had dominated the laps in recent years, Larson’s consistency has come under scrutiny. Since his ambitious Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 double, the No. 5 team’s top-10 finishes have been elusive.
Nevertheless, Larson secured a win from pole at Kansas Speedway in May, a performance that could be sufficient to carry him forward. Fifty-two laps led at Gateway hinted at untapped speed, giving hope for a turnaround in this round.
Christopher Bell: Building Confidence at a Crucial Juncture
Christopher Bell’s victory at Bristol snapped a winless streak, delivering a timely boost to his campaign as he aims for another deep playoff run. This renewed spark comes at an opportune moment for Bell and his No. 20 team, who now appear more prepared than ever for the challenges ahead.
Bell’s prospects for this round look bright. He won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last year, finished runner-up at Kansas in May, and secured second at the ROVAL last fall. With success at all three tracks featured in this elimination round, Bell could close the performance gap to Hamlin within Joe Gibbs Racing and emerge as a top title candidate.
Ryan Blaney: Building Momentum for Team Penske
Ryan Blaney and Team Penske have timed their surge effectively, delivering eight top-eight finishes in the last nine events—including a victory at the Daytona International Speedway regular-season finale. Despite a season marked by inconsistency, Blaney has found stability at a crucial moment.
Although Blaney has only one career win in this round of tracks, his recent results suggest he is well-positioned. He posted strong back-to-back top-five performances at Kansas, a fifth-place run at New Hampshire in 2021, and brings notable momentum. This newly regained confidence may prove critical for Blaney’s aspirations to advance further.
Chase Briscoe: Exceeding Expectations in the Playoffs
Chase Briscoe’s performance in the Round of 16 has surpassed expectations, with over 450 laps led—nearly double his output from the regular season. Briscoe entered the playoffs as a less prominent contender in Joe Gibbs Racing’s lineup but has shown a sharp rise under the guidance of crew chief James Small.
The No. 19 team carries historic strength at New Hampshire, highlighted by Martin Truex Jr.’s prior success, and Briscoe’s proficiency on road courses could pay off at the ROVAL. Toyota’s robust performance this season may help propel Briscoe into the next round and possibly make him a formidable dark horse.
Chase Elliott: Challenges Despite a Storied Resume
Chase Elliott’s recent record includes just two wins in the past three years, leaving him with one of the lowest victory counts among championship-eligible drivers. His third-place finish at Gateway in the Round of 16 was the best among the Hendrick Motorsports contingent, yet his struggle to win races poses a threat to his playoff position.
The debut of the Next Gen chassis has hindered Elliott’s success on road courses where he once excelled; his average finish at the ROVAL has dropped since 2022. While Elliott started on pole at New Hampshire last season, his narrow advantage with just five points above the cut line underscores the precariousness of his situation. Team pressure intensifies as Alan Gustafson’s role as crew chief may hinge on Elliott’s ability to advance.
Bubba Wallace: Navigating a Breakout Year Amidst Distractions
Bubba Wallace’s 2024 campaign has been a career best, with 355 laps led marking a new personal high. The birth of his child has coincided with greater on-track composure, helping Wallace to bounce back quickly from setbacks that once led to prolonged struggles.
Despite 23XI Racing lacking the speed it showcased last year and coping with more off-track distractions, Wallace can draw on past successes—including a Kansas Speedway win and solid performances at the ROVAL and New Hampshire. This momentum points toward a pivotal growth opportunity for Wallace as he seeks to reach the next round.
Austin Cindric: The Playoff Underdog Facing an Uphill Battle
Austin Cindric narrowly advanced by surviving the Round of 16, overcoming tire troubles at Bristol to secure a 30th-place finish. His average finish in the prior round was 20.3, with only one top-five finish since his April victory at Talladega Superspeedway.
Cindric is widely regarded as the underdog, with his best hope for a breakthrough likely coming at the ROVAL, where he finished fourth last year. Otherwise, this round may serve as a platform to regroup and prepare for a stronger campaign next season as he fights to maintain his seat with Team Penske.
Joey Logano: The Veteran Aiming for Another Deep Run
Reigning champion Joey Logano faces another playoff phase where survival is key, as odd-numbered years often present greater challenges. This season, he is on track for a career low in top-five finishes and his second-worst average finish since joining Team Penske.
Despite these struggles, Logano has shown resilience by posting consecutive top-five finishes in the Round of 16 for the first time in over two years. His experience and recent form support his bid for one of the final transfer positions to the next round.
Ross Chastain: Searching for Improvement Amid Recent Struggles
Ross Chastain’s playoff journey has been hindered by a lack of top-five finishes since his Coca-Cola 600 win in May. He has led only 14 laps since then and did not finish in the top 10 during the Round of 16. Teammate Shane van Gisbergen, despite a record-setting rookie season, did not progress in the playoffs.
Chastain’s recent performances at the upcoming round’s tracks are not encouraging, with finishes of 10th at New Hampshire, 18th at Kansas, and 28th at the ROVAL. The need for a quick turnaround is clear for Chastain if he is to avoid early elimination.
Tyler Reddick: Talent Facing Adversity and Distraction at 23XI Racing
Tyler Reddick faces similar distractions to teammate Bubba Wallace at 23XI Racing, but has not been able to channel them into positive results. His season has been characterized by misfortune, strategic missteps, and missed chances—and no victories.
While the ability to compete with the best is present, Reddick lacks top-five finishes at the three elimination-round tracks since the start of 2024. Uncertainty around the team’s future and starting as the lowest seed intensify the challenge of advancing to the next stage of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Potential Eliminations and the Path Forward
Predictions for the Round of 12 suggest that William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, and Tyler Reddick are most at risk of not advancing to the Round of 8. Their recent performance trends, combined with track histories and external pressures, create steep odds for their playoff survival.
The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs remain fiercely contested, with driver form, team strategy, and mental fortitude all critical as the field narrows. This Round of 12 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway will be pivotal, not only for the season’s title race but for shaping future narratives and driver legacies within the sport.
