Kyle Larson playoff resurgence has become a compelling storyline in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs as New Hampshire Motor Speedway shifted momentum away from Toyota. Last Sunday’s results saw Ford and Chevrolet reclaim prominence, with Ryan Blaney and Josh Berry finishing first and second, and Chevrolet powering over half of the top nine — leaving Toyota with only Christopher Bell securing sixth place in the final standings.
Following Toyota’s dominant early playoff runs, these developments upended expectations. Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and William Byron — drivers representing Ford and Chevrolet — enjoyed the largest increases in playoff advancement odds based on a forecast model that simulates the playoffs 10,000 times with projected Driver Ratings. At the same time, Toyota drivers, particularly Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace from 23XI Racing, experienced significant setbacks in their postseason probabilities.
This resurgence was critical for the non-Toyota teams, especially Chevrolet, to restore their championship credentials. Within Chevrolet’s camp, Kyle Larson now appears increasingly formidable as a title competitor, especially with Kansas Speedway — a venue he has repeatedly conquered — up next on the schedule.
Larson’s Season Marked by Early Dominance and Midyear Difficulties
Larson’s 2025 performance began on an impressive note, matching or surpassing his best campaigns from recent years. The No. 5 Chevrolet claimed three wins in the opening 12 races — translating to a 25% win rate. Alongside victories, he maintained a 9.8 average finish, an Adjusted Points+ index of 240 (which is 140% better than the Cup series average), and an average Driver Rating of 102.6. Across all four categories, Larson was on pace for his most commanding season since winning the 2021 Cup Series championship.
However, this strong start concluded with a 21st-place finish in the All-Star Race and gave way to a series of lackluster performances. Larson’s pursuit of the Indy 500/Coke 600 Double added further complications. While he finished 18th at Indianapolis in 2024 but couldn’t race at Charlotte due to weather issues, this year, early crashes at both marquee races saw him finish 24th at Indy and 37th at Charlotte after leading 34 laps at the latter.
Reflecting on the challenges of the ambitious “Double,” Larson signaled an end to future attempts, stating,
“Logistically, it’s just really, really tough,”
—Kyle Larson, Driver. Yet, even as he closed the chapter on dual-race pursuits, a persistent slump began to shadow his Cup Series campaign.
Struggles and Signs of Revival in Recent Races
Since his disappointing Charlotte finish, Larson experienced an unusually lean stretch — recording no wins and only three top-five results across 18 starts. His average finish dropped to 17.4 (ranking 14th among active drivers), his Adjusted Points+ index fell to 125 (12th overall), and his Driver Rating slipped to 82.8 (10th best). Although Larson occasionally displayed flashes of his trademark excellence — notching five instances with a rating above 100, which outpaced current playoff opponents like Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, and Ross Chastain — inconsistencies plagued his season, with six finishes at 28th or worse and five runs outside the top 31.
Such an extended period of mediocre results is rare for a driver regularly ranked as a top championship contender. The last instance when Larson posted only three top fives in an 18-race span dates back to July 2019, when he raced for Chip Ganassi Racing. For a competitor typically viewed as a near-lock title favorite, seeing Larson in merely average form for such a long stretch was jarring.
Signs have emerged, however, that this stagnation may be ending. Larson recently achieved a 107.1 Driver Rating at Loudon, marking his second 100-plus performance in three races. Although a lackluster 60.5 rating at Bristol interrupted this momentum, this race was his only recent showing below a 90, the best consistency he has managed since before his struggles with the Double. In fact, over his last five races, Larson’s average Driver Rating climbed to 92.7 — lower than his early-season peaks but still the highest since early June, prior to the onset of his midyear downturn.
Kansas Speedway Offers Opportunity for Further Momentum
The upcoming race at Kansas Speedway provides an ideal setting for Kyle Larson to solidify his playoff resurgence. Larson enters Kansas as the defending champion from the spring event, and he has claimed two victories in the last three Cup Series races held at this track. In the Next Gen era, since 2022, no other active driver compares at Kansas: Larson boasts a 28.5% win rate, a 6.3 average finish, a 271 Adjusted Points+ index, and a 111.4 Driver Rating at the venue, leading all competitors in these metrics.
Given this dominant record at Kansas as well as comparable tracks like Las Vegas, it’s unsurprising that Larson is a clear favorite heading into the Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet, according to models based on track similarity and historical performance. Experts predict that if Larson performs to his capability at Kansas, the narrative around the Cup Series playoffs could change rapidly.
Implications for the Championship Race
Even a victory by Larson in Kansas would not instantly make him the overall title favorite; while a win would boost his forecasted odds to 16.0%, current leader Ryan Blaney would remain at 21.0%. Nevertheless, a top run at Kansas would serve as a strong warning to the remainder of the playoff field. Rivals who may have grown comfortable with Larson as an average contender might need to prepare for the return of his championship-caliber form as the playoffs intensify.
As the playoff picture continues to evolve, the spotlight remains fixed on Kyle Larson playoff resurgence. The upcoming events at Kansas Speedway and beyond will reveal whether Larson’s return to form is temporary or the beginning of a renewed championship bid that puts all his competitors on high alert.
